The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued its seasonal outlook for the 2026 monsoon season, predicting below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country. However, certain northern regions are expected to receive above-normal precipitation. According to the PMD, Kashmir, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan are likely to experience heavier-than-usual rainfall during the monsoon period.
Temperature Projections
The PMD also projected that temperatures will remain above normal across the country from July to September. Northern Punjab and western Gilgit-Baltistan are expected to face comparatively more intense heat conditions. The combination of intense monsoon spells and rising temperatures could heighten the risk of urban flooding in several cities across Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Water Scarcity and Heat Stress
The department further cautioned that reduced rainfall in parts of Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan could exacerbate water scarcity. Sustained high temperatures may intensify heat stress conditions nationwide. Officials also highlighted an increased risk of glacial melting and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in northern areas, which could contribute to flooding hazards during the season.
Expert Recommendations
Experts have urged authorities to strengthen preparedness measures, improve early warning systems, and enhance climate resilience to mitigate potential impacts of extreme weather events. The PMD's outlook serves as a critical tool for disaster management and agricultural planning.
