In the crystalline waters off Kenya's coast, coral reefs are thriving, offering a rare positive story in the battle to protect oceans from climate change. A new study presented at the Our Ocean Conference in Mombasa on Tuesday reveals that 166,000 square kilometers of the world's coral reefs—roughly one-third of the total—are particularly "climate-resilient," meaning they can potentially survive major ocean warming events.
Study Challenges IPCC Findings
The research, conducted by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Macquarie University in Australia, challenges the IPCC's predictions that 70 to 90 percent of coral reefs could die with 1.5°C of global warming, and 99 percent at 2°C. "Our models show a much more hopeful future for coral reefs. We predict that many climate-resilient reefs around the world will persist over time," said Stacy Jupiter, executive director for marine conservation at WCS.
Local Conservation Efforts in Kenya
However, action is still needed, as only 28 percent of those resilient reefs are currently protected. On Kenya's Wasini-Mkwiro island, local communities are leading the way. Fishermen bring their catch to be weighed and logged by data collectors, while beach management units patrol waters to prevent overfishing and destructive practices. Others plant seaweed and mangroves and remove rubbish.
"We want to keep this ecosystem as pristine as possible because we know the benefits," said Edward Karanja, Kenya Wildlife Service warden for the Kisite marine park. Thanks to these efforts, the park became the first in Kenya to earn a Gold-Level Blue Park Award from the Marine Conservation Institute in 2021.
Coral Bleaching and Resilience
Coral bleaching occurs when water temperatures rise by a degree or two, stressing coral and causing them to expel algae. But the new study finds many reefs are resilient due to cool spots, heat tolerance, or quick recovery. "The way we see coral responding to heat events is more nuanced than we previously thought," said Jupiter.
Kenya has a significant stretch of naturally resilient coral. During the last major bleaching event in 2024, coral cover fell from 44 to 27 percent but recovered to 40 percent within a year. The new research, funded by the Bloomberg Ocean Initiative and under peer review, builds on a 2018 study and uses technology to create a map 10,000 times more detailed, revealing three times more resilient coral than previously known.
Global Distribution of Resilient Reefs
More than half of these resilient reefs are concentrated in Australia, the Bahamas, Cuba, Indonesia, and the Philippines. "These reefs could act as living seed banks for wider ecosystem recovery," said lead author Kyle Zawada of Macquarie University.
Mass bleaching events are becoming almost annual, and a potentially powerful El Nino this year could be devastating. Local communities have little control over global warming, but "there are urgent and immediate things that we can control directly," said Jesse Kosgei, a WCS marine researcher, such as preventing destructive fishing or water pollution. "We have good news about coral reefs, and it's for us now to make sure that we start conserving these places that are resilient," he added.
Clint Oakley, a coral scientist at Victoria University in Wellington, called the study "heartening" but emphasized that climate change-induced warming remains the "greatest threat" and "reducing carbon emissions is still the most important thing if we want to have coral reefs a century from now."
