Strait of Hormuz Traffic to Increase Slowly After Peace Deal
The global energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to see a gradual rise in ship traffic following the US-Iran peace agreement. However, reaching pre-war traffic levels could take several months as uncertainties persist over the reopening of this vital waterway.
The Middle East conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, concluded with a negotiated agreement. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that the US and Iran reached a deal to cease all military operations, including those in Lebanon. US President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen on Friday, with most mines in the region being cleared.
Before the war, an average of 130 commercial ships transited the strait daily, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). During the conflict, daily traffic dropped by over 90%, with some days seeing only a single vessel. Data from analytics firm Kpler shows that on June 10, five commercial vessels passed through; on June 11, five; on June 12, seven; on June 13, one; and on June 14, five. Among the last ships to transit on June 14 was the Malta-flagged Disha, carrying 132,000 cubic meters of LNG from Qatar to India.
Despite the peace deal announced early Monday, commercial traffic did not increase significantly on Tuesday. On Monday, only two vessels transited the strait. The Saint Kitts and Nevis-flagged dry cargo ship Kaiser carried 27,000 tons of cargo via the Iran route, traveling from Iraq's Umm Qasr Port to Oman. The Honduran-flagged oil tanker Argo Maris departed from Iran's Bandar Abbas port with 6,700 tonnes of petroleum products, also using the Iran route; its destination remains unknown.
Industry representatives describe the situation as highly fragile, with uncertainties about vessel transits persisting despite the peace deal. The mine threat in the region remains a major concern, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO). Currently, about 500 commercial vessels are waiting in the Gulf to transit the strait. These waiting ships are expected to pass first, following the disruption that lasted over 100 days. Traffic could reach 50% of pre-war levels within 30 days.
The 118 tankers currently loaded in the Gulf are likely to be among the first to transit within the next 10-15 days, provided no issues arise with the implementation of the agreement. Daily ship passages could rise from 15 to around 40 by the end of the month, with tankers making up about 60% of traffic.
The pace of ships re-entering the Gulf will be crucial for normalizing the strait after the backlog is cleared. While shippers are expected to be cautious, re-entries will be gradual. The number of tankers entering the Gulf could reach 12 per day by the end of the first 30 days, about 50% below pre-war levels.
Dimitris Ampatzidis, maritime risk and compliance manager at Kpler, noted that even with the strait reopened, traffic will not return to normal immediately. He estimated that waiting ships will take around two to three months to leave the region, complete their voyages, and return for new cargo. A return to pre-war production and export levels in parts of the Middle East could take even longer, depending on the country and conditions.
