Pakistan Issues Stark Warning Over Indus Water Treaty Violations
Pakistan has reiterated that any diversion of rivers allocated to it under the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960 constitutes an act of war, warning that such actions will be met with a forceful response. The statement comes amid escalating Indian rhetoric and actions, including the construction of a 23-kilometer tunnel to divert waters from the River Chandra, a tributary of the Chenab, to a tributary of the River Beas. According to water expert Arshad Abbasi, India is holding the IWT in abeyance and has commenced this project in clear violation of the treaty.
The total annual discharge of the Indus River Basin averages 137 to 146 Million Acre-Feet (MAF). Under the IWT, Pakistan receives approximately 84% of this, equivalent to about 142 MAF, while India receives the remaining 16%. India's determination to alter this equation threatens Pakistan's water security.
India's Tunnel Project and Treaty Breach
India's experience in tunnel construction in the region includes the Atal Tunnel, a 9-kilometer road tunnel connecting the Chenab and Beas Valleys, which is the longest single-tube tunnel in the world above 10,000 feet. Now, the water from the Chenab will flow to the Beas, in utter violation of the IWT. The IWT was brokered and approved by the World Bank and recently validated by the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague.
International treaties are sacrosanct as long as signatories adhere to them. However, when a stronger party feels it can ignore a treaty with a weaker nation, the treaty remains in abeyance. India's declaration that the IWT is no longer effective signals its belief that it is powerful enough not to be obliged to Pakistan or any international organization.
Pakistan's Water Storage Crisis
Pakistan's water storage capacity is critically low, with estimates ranging from 30 to 90 days, according to the Planning Commission. This compares unfavorably with the regional figure of 120 days and the world standard of 300 days. Even with the completion of the Bhasha, Mohmand, and Dasu dams, storage will increase to only 45 days. If the Kalabagh Dam is built, it would add 8 MAF, or about 7 days of storage capacity.
In contrast, the Aswan Dam in Egypt has storage of 1,000 days, the Colorado in the US and the Murray-Darling in Australia have 900 days each, the Orange River in South Africa has 500 days, and India has 320 days. The neglect in creating water storage facilities is described as criminal, mortgaging the future of Pakistan's children and grandchildren.
Per Capita Water Availability and Safety
According to the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), per capita water availability fell below the required 1,700 cubic meters in 1990, to less than 1,000 cubic meters in 2005, and is projected to fall below 500 cubic meters by 2025, marking absolute water scarcity. Additionally, only 18% of drinking water samples in Pakistan are fit for consumption.
For the Islamabad-Rawalpindi region, dams like Dotara, Shahdara, and Dadocha should have been built long ago. The Dadocha Dam, planned in 2001 to provide 25 million gallons per day (MGD) to Rawalpindi, faced delays due to land acquisition litigation with the DHA. Now under construction, its completion date is 2029, a tragic delay of two decades.
India's Hydroelectric Projects on the Chenab
India has built or is building several hydroelectric projects on the Chenab River, including Baglihar (900 MW), Salal Dam (690 MW), and Dulhasti-I (390 MW), which are operational. Under construction are Sawalkote (1,856 MW), Ratle (850 MW), Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW), and Dulhasti Stage-II (258 MW). India is authorized under the IWT to store up to 1.2 MAF of river discharge water in projects along the Chenab against a total annual discharge of 30-33 MAF. Existing Indian-built, run-of-the-river hydroelectric dams have a combined live storage capacity of roughly 0.26 MAF, still short of its allocation.
The largest river diversion project in Kashmir is the 100-kilometer-long diversion of the Kishenganga-Neelum River from the Gurez Valley to Wular Lake on the Jhelum River. However, since the Neelum River is a tributary of the Jhelum, Pakistan is not deprived of any water. Inter-tributary diversions are permitted under the IWT. The only breach would occur if India diverts waters of the River Chandra to the Beas, with a capacity of 1.9 MAF, which should be countered by international arbitration or force.
Conclusion: Urgent Need for Water Storage
The water crisis is a question of life and death for Pakistan. The country must protect the IWT and seriously undertake the construction of large and small dams to enhance water storage. Non-controversial dam sites like Kurram-Tangi Dam in North Waziristan, Nai Gaj Dam in Dadu, Naulong Dam in Jhal Magsi, and Soan River Dam in Potohar have been neglected for decades. This criminal neglect must be addressed as a top priority to secure Pakistan's water future.
