A noticeable quiet has descended upon Pakistan's political scene. The loud protests that followed the February 2024 general elections have largely subsided. The main opposition party is now tangled in internal conflicts, struggling with instructions from its jailed leader. Meanwhile, smaller political groups seem to have accepted the new reality of a changed political order.
A Confident Government and its Diplomatic Pillars
In this period of calm, the coalition government presents a picture of assured control. This confidence stems from two key areas: constitutional changes and a string of foreign policy victories. The real foundation of this assurance, however, lies in concrete diplomatic gains.
The start of the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has provided a major boost. There are also renewed hopes for building a broader relationship with Washington that goes beyond just counterterrorism cooperation. Pakistan is currently engaged in a delicate balancing act between its strategic partner, Beijing, and its complex relationship with Washington, often facilitated by military diplomacy.
Furthermore, a recent strategic agreement with Saudi Arabia is being celebrated as the most significant achievement of the current administration. This diplomatic momentum is set against a backdrop of claimed national security success—a widely publicized victory against a formidable enemy—which solidifies the official narrative of a nation returning to stability.
The Unaddressed Economic Crisis
At the core of this new equilibrium is a civil-military relationship that many describe as unprecedented. With the political opposition fragmented, the government appears deeply convinced of its own legitimacy. Unconcerned with public unpopularity and with the next election years away, Islamabad seems comfortable, perhaps even complacent.
This comfort, however, has led to a critical oversight: the gradual sidelining of the economic recovery program that was the central reason for the coalition's formation. The government seems to believe that a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) package, occasional approving statements from the Fund, and promises of American investment are enough to manage the economy. In this political calculation, the main coalition partner appears to be the only clear loser, as its promised turn at the prime minister's office now looks uncertain.
Stress-Testing the Calm: Urgent Questions
This period of political quiet raises crucial questions. Is this stability genuine, or are we merely witnessing a pause before a greater storm? The current calm should be seen as an opportunity, not a final achievement. The true test lies in tackling the fundamental issues that have plagued Pakistan for decades.
In the immediate term, pressing questions demand answers:
- Will the IMF program reliably prevent a sovereign default and restore Pakistan's international credibility?
- What concrete measures are being taken to combat crippling food and energy inflation?
- Can the status of a 'net security stabiliser' alone solve the country's severe economic woes?
- How will the government build meaningful foreign exchange reserves without relying solely on remittances, debt rollovers, and new loans?
- Is there a viable plan to resuscitate local industry and large-scale manufacturing?
Looking toward the medium and long term, the agenda becomes even more complex. It involves promises to address the hemorrhaging circular debt in the energy sector, the perennial threat of terrorism, and the politically difficult tasks of broadening the tax base and privatizing loss-making state enterprises. Aspirations to become a regional IT hub or a trade corridor seem hollow without robust plans to confront existential threats like water security, the unchecked population boom, and climate change.
The roadmap is undoubtedly ambitious. Addressing these challenges requires a degree of political will and national consensus that has been historically elusive. The current political truce offers a precious window to move from merely managing crises to building a sustainable future. However, to mistake this temporary quiet for a permanent solution is a dangerous illusion. Without substantive action, this calm may well be remembered as nothing more than the lull before a greater storm of economic collapse or renewed political upheaval.
