Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast the onset of monsoon rains from the first week of July, with widespread rain, windstorms, and thunderstorms expected across most parts of the country. The weather system is influenced by a westerly wave entering from June 30 and strong moisture inflows from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
Weather Systems and Heatwave Relief
According to the Met Office, the westerly wave is likely to enter the upper parts of the country from the evening or night of June 30, while moist currents from the Arabian Sea are already penetrating eastern and central regions. Additional moisture from the Bay of Bengal is expected to reach the upper parts from July 2, enhancing monsoon activity across the country.
The country has been experiencing severe heatwave conditions for the last couple of weeks, with temperatures in southern Sindh province surging to 50°C. Heatwave conditions developed over the country, with maximum temperatures recorded 4–6°C above normal, swelling to 41–46°C in parts of the country. The PMD said the prevailing hot and humid conditions are likely to subside during the forecast period.
Regional Rainfall Forecasts
Under the influence of the weather system, scattered rain, windstorms, and thundershowers, with isolated heavy falls, are expected in Kashmir, including Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber, and Mirpur from July 1 to 6.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, scattered rain, windstorms, and thundershowers, accompanied by isolated heavy falls, are expected in Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Malakand, Nowshera, Charsadda, Karak, Tank, Lakki Marwat, Swabi, Shangla, Battagram, Buner, Kohat, Kurram, Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Peshawar, Mardan, Hangu, Waziristan, Bannu, and Dera Ismail Khan from July 1 to 5 with occasional gaps.
The PMD said scattered rain, windstorms, and thundershowers, with isolated heavy falls, are expected in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Murree, Galliyat, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Wazirabad, Faisalabad, Khushab, Sargodha, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, and Narowal from July 1 to 6. Rain is also expected in Sahiwal, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, Pakpattan, Nankana Sahib, Chiniot, Okara, Kasur, Noor Pur Thal, Bhakkar, Layyah, Mianwali, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Dera Ghazi Khan, Multan, Khanewal, Lodhran, Muzaffargarh, and Rajanpur from July 3 to 5 with occasional gaps.
Gilgit-Baltistan, Balochistan, and Sindh
In Gilgit-Baltistan, rain, windstorms, and thunderstorms are likely in Diamir, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche, and Shigar from July 1 to 5 with occasional gaps. The Met Office said rain, windstorms, and thundershowers are expected in the northern and northeastern parts of Balochistan, including Zhob, Sherani, Kohlu, Naseerabad, Harnai, Sibbi, Barkhan, and Dera Bugti from July 1 to 4. In Sindh, rain, windstorms, and thundershowers are likely in Sukkur, Larkana, Dadu, Jacobabad, Shaheed Benazirabad, Kashmore, Shikarpur, Ghotki, Khairpur, Qambar Shahdadkot, and Naushahro Feroze on July 3 and 4.
Warnings and Precautions
The PMD warned that windstorms and lightning may damage vulnerable structures, including solar panels, electric poles, and billboards, during the forecast period. It said landslides may occur in vulnerable areas of upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir from July 2 to 6. There is also a possibility of flash flooding in local streams and nullahs of Kashmir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Gilgit-Baltistan, as well as hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan from July 2 to 5.
Heavy rainfall may cause urban and flash flooding in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Nowshera, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujranwala, Lahore, and Faisalabad from July 1 to 4. The department advised tourists and travellers to remain extra cautious and avoid unnecessary travel during the forecast period. Farmers were advised to manage crop activities in accordance with weather conditions and ensure proper care of livestock.
The PMD advised all concerned authorities to remain vigilant and take necessary precautionary measures to avoid any untoward situation during the forecast period.
