The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has announced that the monsoon season will commence in the country from July 1, with Sindh province not expected to receive significant rainfall until after July 5. According to PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazir, the monsoon system will first affect northeastern parts of Pakistan, including Punjab and Kashmir, with rainfall also anticipated in northern areas and northeastern Punjab beginning July 1.
Monsoon Arrival and Initial Impact
Nazir stated that there is no likelihood of the monsoon system reaching Sindh in the coming days, and no rainfall is expected in the province before July 5. He explained that a low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal may influence weather conditions in Sindh, including Karachi, potentially increasing the chances of rain later. However, Nazir cautioned that several parts of Sindh, including Karachi, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season.
Temperature and Rainfall Forecasts
The forecast comes amid predictions of above-normal mean temperatures nationwide. The PMD has indicated that warmer-than-normal conditions are particularly likely over southern regions, stretching from eastern Balochistan and western Sindh to central Punjab. For June, the department expects near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall across the country. Its probabilistic outlook shows near-normal rainfall probabilities dominating southern regions, including much of Sindh, although rainfall could vary considerably from place to place.
May Weather Data and Trends
PMD data for May revealed that Sindh received only 0.3 millimetres of rainfall, which is 91.3% below its 1991–2020 normal of 3.1 millimetres. The province’s mean temperature was 35.2°C, or 1.0°C above normal. These figures highlight the ongoing dry and hot conditions in the region.
Heatwave and Urban Flooding Risks
In its monthly outlook, the PMD warned that above-normal temperatures could increase the potential for heat spikes and prolonged heatwave conditions, especially across the plain areas of Sindh, Punjab, and Balochistan. Below-normal rainfall could make extended heat-like conditions more likely in these regions. Despite the overall below-normal rainfall forecast, the department noted that isolated heavy downpours could still trigger localised urban flooding in major cities, particularly in poorly drained and low-lying areas.
