The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a forecast indicating below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during June and the upcoming three-month period. The department warned of intensified heatwaves, water shortages, and increased challenges for the agriculture sector.
May 2026 Rainfall and Temperature Data
According to the PMD, Pakistan received an average of 22.4 millimetres of rainfall in May 2026, which is approximately 10 per cent below normal levels. The mean temperature for the month stood at 29.2 degrees Celsius, 0.8 degrees above the long-term average.
Punjab recorded 29.7 millimetres of rainfall during May, which is 19 per cent above normal. In contrast, Sindh received only 0.3 millimetres, marking a deficit of 91 per cent. Balochistan experienced 71 per cent below-normal rainfall, while Gilgit-Baltistan recorded 33 per cent above-normal precipitation.
June 2026 Outlook
In its monthly outlook for June 2026, the PMD stated that rainfall is likely to remain near normal to slightly below normal across most parts of Pakistan. The largest rainfall deficits are expected in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Conversely, Gilgit-Baltistan and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are likely to receive slightly above-normal rainfall.
Climatic Factors
The PMD noted that the El Niño phase has re-emerged in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to persist in the coming months. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a neutral phase. These climatic conditions could result in uneven spatial distribution of rainfall across the country, exacerbating existing water stress and agricultural vulnerabilities.
