Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has emerged as the decisive winner of the country’s general election, with his Prosperity Party retaining an overwhelming parliamentary majority. The party secured 438 of the 501 contested seats, ensuring Abiy will be sworn in for another term in early October. However, the election was overshadowed by ongoing conflict, accusations of repression, and minimal participation from opposition parties.
Election Results and Political Landscape
The Prosperity Party’s landslide victory consolidates Abiy’s grip on power, a boon for supporters who credit him with overseeing economic gains. Critics, however, fear that internal divisions and security challenges facing Africa’s second most-populous nation will worsen under his leadership. Abiy, 49, first came to power in 2018 amid anti-government protests, initially hailed for his efforts to heal divisions. He upset politicians from the northern Tigray region, who had dominated government for over two decades, and won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending hostilities with neighboring Eritrea.
Security Challenges and Election Disruptions
Security experts warn that Ethiopia could be heading back to war, with violent insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions showing no signs of abating. On election day, 143 polling stations in these two most-populous regions failed to open due to safety concerns from armed groups fighting the government. The Fano militias in Amhara and the proscribed Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, both seeking greater autonomy, rejected the election and its results.
Tigray Exclusion and Regional Tensions
Tigray, still recovering from a two-year civil war that ended in 2022, was completely excluded from the poll. The region, home to six million people and comprising 38 constituencies, faces rising fears of renewed fighting. Tigray borders Eritrea, and during the war, its troops were allied with Ethiopian government forces, accused of widespread atrocities against Tigrayan civilians—allegations denied by the government. Since the conflict ended, relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have sharply deteriorated. Eritrea, with its 1,350km coastline, accuses landlocked Ethiopia of imperial ambitions. Over the past three years, Abiy has repeatedly spoken of Ethiopia’s need to regain access to a Red Sea port, lost when Eritrea became independent in 1993. Asmara has now allied with Tigray’s leaders, and any new conflict could see Eritrea side with Tigrayan forces.
Regional Instability and Foreign Allegations
Addis Ababa has also been accused of involvement in Sudan’s civil war, with multiple reports alleging support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), though Ethiopia denies this. Meanwhile, Eritrea and Tigrayan forces are understood to have close links to the Sudanese military, which is fighting the RSF. This toxic mix could spread instability across the region. The enmity between Abiy’s government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was supposed to end with a peace deal signed in November 2022, but both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement. The conflict was one of the deadliest this century, with the African Union’s mediator estimating 600,000 deaths as fighting drove the region to the brink of famine. The government was accused of blocking food aid to the region, an allegation it denied. “The risks are real and are driven by both sides,” Cameron Hudson, an Africa analyst and former US State Department official, told the BBC.
