The elections in Gilgit-Baltistan are poised to result in a hung assembly, with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) emerging as the single largest party by securing 10 of the 24 contested seats. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), an ally of the PPP at the federal level, has clinched six seats, while the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has ended up with two. Five Independent candidates and one candidate from the religious-political party Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) have also secured seats in the 33-member House, which includes six reserved seats for women and three for minorities.
These results, however, are being contested across the board, with even the coalition allies at the Centre disputing the outcome. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) has raised allegations of non-issuance of Forms 45 in real time, which is turning out to be a major point of contention in the vote count. The PTI of incarcerated former Prime Minister Imran Khan has outright rejected the outcome, alleging massive irregularities and manipulation of results in several constituencies.
PTI's complaints about the absence of a level-playing field were genuine, as the party's election campaign, already stripped of its election symbol, faced intense pressure from the authorities. Likewise, delays in the announcement of results cast serious doubts, along with the deployment of a heavy contingent of Punjab Police in the picturesque Northern Areas, which otherwise witnessed a peaceful electioneering process.
If conventional politics is any guide, a PML-N or PPP victory was a safe bet, as local voters typically side with the political parties in power in Islamabad. As many as 396 candidates from more than a dozen political parties, apart from independents, ran for the legislature in the strategically important valley, which saw three chief ministers play roulette in the outgoing assembly.
Based on the results received, a PPP-PML-N coalition remains the most likely government formation scenario. The only wild card would be an 'alliance of convenience' if the PTI, MWM, independents, and the PML-N agree to join forces to keep the PPP out of power.
