Humanity may be scrolling its way out of existence. Across the globe, fertility rates are plummeting. In 2023, the average number of births per woman worldwide fell beneath 2.1 — the minimum level necessary for averting population decline, also known as the replacement rate. This collapse is not concentrated in just a handful of places; more than two-thirds of all nations now have below-replacement fertility.
While this crisis has been building for decades, its nature recently changed. In the 20th century, fertility fell primarily because couples started having fewer children. Now, it is falling mostly because fewer people are forming couples — or having sex at all. If these trends continue, the consequences will be transformative and possibly catastrophic, as graying populations place unprecedented burdens on the remaining young. Vast countries will swiftly shrivel into city states. Today, Thailand is home to 63 million people. In two centuries, that will fall to 2 million if the country's current fertility rate persists.
Key Takeaways
- Global fertility has fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman.
- The collapse in romantic partnership in the 2010s tracks closely with mass smartphone adoption.
- AI chatbots and companion apps may accelerate the trend by offering on-demand emotional support and validation.
These are not just 23rd-century problems. If sustained indefinitely, today's global fertility rate would ensure humanity's extinction. And it is partly your phone's fault, according to one leading theory.
The Smartphone Theory
To make sense of recent fertility trends, some analysts have turned to the devices in our pockets. Journalist John Burn-Murdoch and social scientist Alice Evans argue that the smartphone helped birth the global spike in singledom. As smartphone ownership skyrocketed globally during the 2010s, more young people tapped into a vast trove of personalized entertainment, reducing incentives to socialize in person. With virtually every movie, TV show, and pornography at your fingertips, you no longer need parties for stimulation. With social media accounts, you can experience communal recognition without leaving home.
This withdrawal from in-person socializing reduces opportunities to meet romantic partners or develop social skills, leading to a decline in relationship formation. Brad Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Institute for Family Studies, stated, "The digital revolution has played a signal role in both degrading socialization for young adults and dividing young adults from one another."
And that revolution is only beginning. Since 2022, more than 1 billion people have gained access to infinitely patient conversation partners like Claude and ChatGPT, which can speak knowledgeably about interests and listen compassionately. Hermits can now enjoy perpetual stimulation and emotional support without social contact. Future AI iterations may take even more engaging forms, potentially replacing human intimacy.
Amusing Ourselves to Abstinence
No one thinks digital technology is the primary cause of declining fertility, a trend predating the iPhone by over a century. The main drivers are modernity: reduced child mortality, higher returns to education, and women's rights. However, fertility rates plateaued globally in the 2000s and rose in advanced economies before abruptly plummeting in the 2010s. During that decade, singledom spiked worldwide. According to a 2025 study in Nature, mothers in most high-income countries have about as many children as decades ago, but fertility falls due to fewer women having children at all.
The coupling collapse cannot be explained by women's rights expansion or economic turmoil; it occurs even in patriarchal societies and across various economic conditions. Smartphones, however, were in the right places at the right times. In country after country, the rise in singles and drop in birth rates coincided with mass smartphone adoption. Correlation is not causation, but studies show that high-speed internet access accelerated declines in teen birth rates. Time-use data reveals that across 21 European nations, daily socializing with friends fell from 21 percent in 2006 to 12 percent in 2022. In the US, in-person social interaction plunged during the smartphone era.
How AI Could Make Sex Obsolete
Streaming and social media made solitary life less dull, but AI chatbots now provide emotional support that previously required real relationships. If smartphones outcompeted offline interaction before hosting chatbots, they are even better equipped now. Frequent interaction with a chatbot that perpetually centers your concerns could encourage unrealistic standards for human conversation.
Research from OpenAI and MIT in 2025 found that participants who spent more time with AI chatbots became more socially isolated. Survey data from Brigham Young University shows that 19 percent of American adults, including 31 percent of young men, have chatted with an AI romantic partner. Among young adults in committed relationships, 15 percent reported having a secret AI romance, with many wishing their human partners were more like AI. Regular AI companion users were more likely to be in unstable relationships.
Daniel Faggella of Emerj Artificial Intelligence Research believes advances in AI, VR, and mechanized sex toys will eventually render human intercourse obsolete. While sex likely has more staying power, erotic AI need only lure a sizable minority away from human relationships to accelerate the dating recession and fertility crisis.
The Future Could Be Brighter
AI could also benefit relationships by helping adolescents refine social skills or providing counseling. Some experts question how much smartphones changed fertility trends, attributing the 2010s collapse to long-term structural forces like secularization and women's economic power. Social media may have accelerated these processes by diffusing feminist ideas. Nevertheless, mass smartphone adoption coincided with falling in-person socialization and rising singledom globally, and AI appears to further displace face-to-face interaction.
The tech industry has a strong incentive to generate ever-more compelling substitutes for human connection. As Evans noted, "All these genius software engineers are trying to make something that hooks you in. So I'd predict that the market will enable AI to outcompete humans." This possibility warrants concern given the potential consequences for fertility and human welfare. If the past decade is any guide, technological progress may be speeding us toward a future of ghost towns, scarce children, and nursing homes full of gray-haired hermits with VR paramours. There are worse fates, but ideally humanity would hold out for a better one.
