More than 95 million people across Europe are expected to experience temperatures of at least 35 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, according to an AFP analysis, as the continent's most severe heatwave on record gradually loses intensity. The figure represents a decline from Monday, when over 130 million people were estimated to have endured such extreme heat.
Heatwave Shifts Eastward
The heatwave, which scorched western Europe last week, is now moving east and south. Two in five people in Europe (excluding Turkiye) are still forecast to face temperatures above 30C on Tuesday. The affected populations are primarily in eastern and southern parts of the continent. In Hungary, nearly the entire population is expected to see the mercury hit 35C. Slovakia, Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, and Croatia are also projected to cross that threshold. Meanwhile, millions in Spain and Italy remain under high-temperature warnings.
Climate Change Link
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group stated that this heatwave would have been “virtually impossible” in June without the influence of climate change. The early-season extreme heat has had severe impacts, including excess deaths, school closures, and cancellation of outdoor activities across the continent.
Methodology and Urban Heat Island Effect
The AFP analysis combined forecasts issued at 0300 GMT from Germany's national weather service, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), with population-density data from the Joint Research Center. Residents are counted if the model forecasts temperatures above 30C or 35C at their location at any point on Tuesday. However, David Jablonski of the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard noted that the projected figures “probably underestimates the number of people affected in densely populated urban areas” because the analysis does not fully capture urban heat-island effects, where cities are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas.
