Renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran have brought shipping to a near-standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving approximately 6,000 seafarers stranded aboard hundreds of vessels. Gulf countries remain on high alert for further attacks, echoing UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres's alarm at the resumption of strikes and counterstrikes.
Impact on Global Shipping and Energy Lifeline
Several countries, including Bahrain, France, Germany, and Saudi Arabia, have underscored the impact on sea transport, particularly in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy corridor. In a separate submission, Iran alleged “armed interference with Iranian commercial vessels” and “aggression carried out by the United States” and Israel. The International Maritime Organization’s Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez insisted that all transit through the Strait should be avoided “until the necessary safety conditions are in place” and noted that the evacuation of stranded seafarers would remain on hold for security reasons. According to IMO data, 136 ships have been evacuated along with 2,900 seafarers to date.
Casualties and Economic Fallout
Fourteen people have been killed in the last two days of hostile exchanges, while dozens more have been injured in strikes across five provinces, according to Iranian authorities. Tuesday’s reported attacks in the Strait of Hormuz caused a temporary spike in crude oil prices, which recovered on Thursday to around $77 per barrel, still higher than pre-war levels. The renewed hostilities came after three merchant ships were reportedly struck on Tuesday while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite a truce agreement signed by Iran and the US on 17 June.
Truce Agreement Violated
That 14-point, Pakistan-mediated memorandum of understanding called for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” It also specified 60 days of negotiations to achieve a “final deal” on issues including uranium enrichment by Iran, which also had to reaffirm that it does not intend to develop a nuclear weapon. Other requirements include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping and an easing of US and UN Security Council sanctions on the Middle East nation. The waterway carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies; before the war, around 130 commercial ships passed through it each day.
Global Economic Resilience and Uncertainty
The heads of the International Energy Agency (IAEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank Group, and World Trade Organization said on Wednesday that the global economy has been broadly resilient to the shock from the simmering war in the Middle East, even as some economies have experienced a slowdown in growth and an uptick in inflation. Meeting as part of a coordination group set up in April, the four institutions encouraged further progress toward a resolution to the conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, noting fuel and fertilizer prices have eased since June. They urged governments to uphold freedom of navigation and strengthen energy and food security as uncertainty over the conflict’s economic fallout persists.
