Oil Prices Climb on Failed Iran-US Negotiations
Oil prices increased on Wednesday as the breakdown of discussions between Iran and the United States regarding a final agreement to end their war raised concerns that supply disruptions in the key Middle East producing region could extend. Brent futures rose 33 cents, or 0.45 percent, to $73.28 a barrel at 06:39 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 34 cents, or 0.49 percent, to $69.84 a barrel.
Hormuz Reopening Remains Patchy and Unpredictable
“Hormuz continues to reopen but it’s patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent ... Unless there is a fresh understanding between Washington and Tehran, the market may wait and watch for sustained peace and quiet before crude resumes bearish momentum,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha for what the White House described as “high level” talks on Tuesday, but Iran and host Qatar said they would meet with mediators, rather than the Iranians themselves. Qatar said Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani was among those meeting Witkoff and Kushner.
Brent and WTI Post Major Quarterly Losses
Brent fell by around $45 a barrel between the first and second quarters of this year, its largest quarterly loss since 2008 during the financial crisis. US crude futures meanwhile fell by around $31, their largest quarterly loss since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic crushed global oil demand. The declines followed progress toward ending the Middle East conflict, pulling back from the sharp gains triggered earlier by the hostilities.
Analysts Cut 2026 Oil Price Forecasts
Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, after five straight monthly increases, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. US Vice President JD Vance said Iran would be prevented from charging tolls through the strait, telling The Michael Knowles Show, “This is not going to end in a place where the Iranians are collecting tolls on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz.” Tanker traffic through the critical waterway has started to recover, with Vance claiming that oil flows through the strait had been restored to pre-war levels.
US Crude Inventories Fall Again
Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell again last week while gasoline stocks also declined, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute released on Tuesday. Crude stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ended June 26, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Official US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration will be released at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time on Wednesday.
