For nearly two decades, I have pursued something that should be routine in any functioning state: access to Pakistan's electricity sector data. Not classified secrets, but basic operational figures—generation, capacity utilization, fuel costs, and contract details of independent power producers. These numbers underpin an industry consuming billions of public rupees annually and affecting every household. At Apex Accountability, we know that accountability without data is hollow. Yet, the power sector has consistently denied this information.
A Culture of Secrecy
I once confronted the Chairman of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) and the Managing Director of the Private Power and Infrastructure Board. I asked why public utility data, funded by public money, was guarded like a military secret. Their response: the data was sensitive, required bureaucratic process, and was never fully digitized. This was omertà—the Mafia's code of silence—where information is power and outsiders never see the books. The Mafia at least admits its criminality. Pakistan's power sector operates as a zero-knowledge architecture, designed so that even its regulator cannot confidently state how much electricity the country produces, wastes, or pays for idle capacity.
The Economic Survey Revelation
Then came the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26, and I felt the omertà crack. The data revealed a staggering contradiction. Federal Minister Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari had publicly claimed that Pakistan's reliable grid-connected capacity is 29,000 to 34,000 MW. Yet, the Survey, published by his own government, states that total installed capacity as of March 2026 is 49,651 MW—an 8.5% increase from the previous year. The gap of 15,000 to 20,000 MW represents billions of rupees paid monthly in capacity charges to plants not connected to the grid, running at fractions of capacity, or closed entirely. This money comes from consumers: factory owners in Faisalabad, traders in Karachi, and farmers in Punjab who have abandoned the grid for solar pumps. They pay for plants they never see. This is not energy policy; it is organized extraction.
The Solar Success Story
Rooftop solar net metering is Pakistan's most successful energy program, despite ministry opposition. Since 2024, I have advocated for it, explaining its benefits for energy security and cost reduction. In FY2022-23, CPEC coal plants and LNG mega-plants produced electricity at high costs. Rooftop solar, amortized over its lifespan, produces at a fraction of those costs. Without subsidies or government campaigns, citizens invested their own savings. The Economic Survey confirms that 7,319 MW of the 49,651 MW installed capacity now comes from net metering—a surge driven by ordinary Pakistanis. The ministry's response? To study moving from net metering to net billing, clipping incentives to protect expensive IPP contracts. The ministry cannot meet demand with 49,651 MW, keeps markets closed at 9 PM, and tries to drive consumers back onto an unmanageable grid.
A Predictable Future
The Ministry of Power and NEPRA are following the trajectory of Pakistan Telecommunication Company Limited (PTCL). When mobile phones arrived, PTCL did not die suddenly; it became irrelevant gradually. The landline poles still stand, but nobody calls. Within a decade, electricity distribution poles will serve a similar ceremonial function. Rooftops, batteries, and neighborhood micro-grids are already being installed by the same people the state has failed for two decades. The Economic Survey's installed capacity figure—49,651 MW against a minister's admission of 29,000-34,000 MW—is the accounting of a system running a protection racket against its consumers. The books are open, but likely no one will be held accountable. The wires on those poles will dry clothes before that happens.
