The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a warning that most parts of the country are expected to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures during June and the following two months. This forecast raises concerns about heatwaves, water shortages, and pressure on the agricultural sector.
May 2026 Weather Review
According to the PMD's seasonal outlook, Pakistan received an average of 22.4 millimetres of rainfall in May 2026, which is approximately 10 percent below normal levels. The average national temperature during the month was recorded at 29.2 degrees Celsius, 0.8 degrees above the long-term average.
Regional Rainfall Variations
- Punjab: Received 29.7 millimetres of rainfall in May, about 19 percent above normal.
- Sindh: Recorded only 0.3 millimetres, reflecting a 91 percent deficit.
- Balochistan: Rainfall remained 71 percent below normal.
- Gilgit-Baltistan: Received 33 percent more rainfall than average.
June Forecast
The PMD forecast that rainfall across most regions in June will remain near normal or slightly below normal. The largest deficits are expected in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, Gilgit-Baltistan and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are likely to receive slightly above-normal rainfall.
Climate Patterns
The department noted that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean have become active again and are expected to persist in the coming months, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains in a neutral phase. These climate patterns may result in uneven rainfall distribution across the country.
Temperature Outlook
The PMD further warned that temperatures are expected to remain above normal nationwide throughout June. Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may witness particularly high temperature anomalies, while southern Punjab, Sindh, and the plains of Balochistan are likely to face intense heat and an elevated risk of heatwaves.
