Ignored Warning Sets Stage for Regional Conflict
In the critical days following October 7, 2023, President Joe Biden delivered crucial advice to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that went completely unheeded. The American leader specifically cautioned against repeating the same catastrophic mistakes the United States made after the September 11 attacks.
While Biden never publicly detailed his exact meaning, the message was clearly understood as a warning against overreaction and strategic overreach. The reference pointed directly to President George W. Bush's decision to invade and occupy Iraq while pushing an ambitious democracy agenda to transform the Middle East.
That ill-fated war spanned more than a decade, costing tremendous lives, treasure, and American prestige while unexpectedly empowering Iran and spawning extremist organizations like ISIS. Biden's counsel represented perhaps the soundest advice he offered Israel during his entire presidency.
US Support Despite Warning Signs
The fundamental problem emerged when Netanyahu completely disregarded this wisdom, and the United States failed to exercise any meaningful restraint on Israeli actions. Rather than holding Israel accountable, the Biden administration pursued the opposite approach, fully embracing Netanyahu's objectives in the devastating assault on Gaza.
The US provided Israel with tens of billions in military equipment and consistently defended Israeli actions at the United Nations. As evidence mounted of potential war crimes and genocide, the administration went so far as to threaten sanctions against international jurists investigating these alleged violations.
When American officials timidly suggested considering post-conflict scenarios and proposed ceasefire arrangements, Israel neither clarified its vision for Gaza's future nor fully accepted proposed terms. The United States issued no meaningful rebuke for this resistance.
Regional Conflict Expands
The Biden administration should have recognized that neither Netanyahu nor his governing coalition genuinely sought to end hostilities. They were driven by visions of Greater Israel that included evacuating Palestinians from Gaza, annexing the West Bank, and expanding security perimeters into Lebanon and Syria.
As the conflict continued, it metastasized into a broader regional confrontation. Lebanon's Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi government entered the fray with disastrous consequences. Israel responded with massive bombing campaigns in Lebanon, assassinating Hezbollah leaders, and extending military operations into Syria and Iran.
The situation continued under President Donald Trump's administration, which followed Biden's playbook of providing Israel free rein and political backing while floating grandiose, often contradictory ideas. Trump cautioned against bombing Iran before eventually joining the battle and promoted both the infamous Gaza Riviera plan and elements of the Arab peace plan with Netanyahu's amendments.
Humanitarian Catastrophe Continues
One month after Trump's declaration of the greatest day in human history, Israeli bombs continued falling on Lebanon and Gaza, though with reduced frequency. While some prisoner exchanges occurred between Israel and Hamas, little substantive change emerged for Palestinians.
Over one million Palestinians remain trapped in congested tent camps within the reduced territory from which Israel has withdrawn, with severely limited access to food, clean water, medical care, electricity, and sanitation. Internal conflicts persist between Hamas and clan-led groups armed by Israel, while Israel shows little interest in surrendering its expanded Gaza security perimeter.
Israel has established five military outposts in southern Lebanon, continues bombing Lebanese villages and UN teams, and has expanded its occupation of southern Syria under the pretext of protecting Syria's Druze population.
Despite withdrawing formal annexation legislation for the West Bank, Israel's military and organized settlers continue seizing land, terrorizing villages, preventing olive harvests vital for Palestinian survival, and detaining and killing protesters.
Biden's 2023 cautionary note suffered the same fate as Bush's disastrous Middle East transformation attempt—both led to prolonged conflict and human suffering across the region. Netanyahu's US-supported overreach has indeed transformed the Middle East, but certainly not for the better, with Israel now enmeshed in multi-front conflicts with no end in sight.
The costly nature of these occupations and conflicts requires ongoing American support. With Democrats and growing numbers of Republicans increasingly unwilling to financially underwrite these expenses, the days of Israel's current behavior may be numbered.
