Just as the Middle East appears to be moving, however cautiously, towards a modicum of calm, the war machine has found another theatre to keep itself alive. Ukraine's large-scale drone attack on Moscow marks a dangerous escalation in a conflict that has already consumed too many lives, too much treasure and too much diplomatic space. The strike, which reportedly hit an oil refinery, forced airport evacuations and wounded civilians, cannot be viewed as an ordinary military action.
Red Line Crossed
Moscow has long treated such attacks on its capital as a red line. By crossing it so openly, the West-backed Ukrainian regime has raised the stakes at precisely the moment when the world should be pushing all sides towards a settlement. Instead, it has created the conditions for retaliation, escalation and further destruction.
Putin's Dilemma
President Vladimir Putin will now be under pressure to respond. If he does not, he risks being portrayed as weak at home and abroad. If he does, the conflict widens further. This is exactly the trap in which wars of empire thrive: provoke, retaliate, prolong, repeat.
The Western powers that continue to arm and encourage Kyiv may speak the language of sovereignty and defence, but their conduct has ensured that this conflict remains open-ended. There is no longer any strategic wisdom in extending this war.
Heavy Costs
Ukraine has suffered enormously. Russia has paid a heavy price. Europe has absorbed economic and security shocks. The rest of the world has endured inflation, energy instability and diplomatic polarisation. Yet peace remains treated as defeat, while escalation is sold as resolve.
Call for Peace
If it made sense to seek peace with Iran after years of confrontation, it made sense to seek peace with Russia long ago. There is nothing left in this war that can justify its continuation. Before another retaliatory cycle begins, the urgent task is not to celebrate strikes on capital cities, but to end the conflict itself.
