The sun burns bright in Lucerne, but prospects of talks have brightened in the last few hours. This Swiss city by the lake is brimming with tourists, unaware that only a few kilometers away, the fate of the largest war of our times is being decided. The much-hyped signing ceremony on Friday did not take place because one or both parties to the conflict were unsure of the optics it would generate.
Last-Minute Hiccups Delay Ceremony
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was all set to fly down as the host of the event. Advance teams from the United States, Iran and Pakistan had already arrived days earlier. The mountain-top resort of Burgenstock was readied and decked up for guests. Yet, last-minute hiccups persisted. A very senior government person messaged to say that Pakistan was trying to iron out these wrinkles; things could go either way. By the time our flight took off from Doha, it was apparent that a resolution was not imminent. The Prime Minister's aircraft stood ready on the runway but never took off.
Diplomacy Continues Despite Setback
The ceremony at Burgenstock did not take place, but diplomacy never stopped. A day later, the same official messaged that Pakistan was working feverishly to get the Iranians and Americans together for the second round of talks. On Saturday, the resort began to hum with activity. First the Qataris arrived (they own the resort), then the Americans flew in (Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff), and soon senior people from Pakistan joined along with the Iranians. Diplomacy is continuing to provide cautious but encouraging dividends, with Pakistan at the centre.
Nuclear Issue Remains Sticking Point
Burgenstock will witness former combatants sitting across a table this weekend and the coming week, but the agenda will test their skills, nerves and political capital. For those expecting quick results, lower expectations. Probable outcomes vary. In the MoU, it is written that Iran reiterates never to develop a nuclear weapon. Focus on 'reiterate' — Iran has broken no new policy ground. The devil lies in details: enrichment levels, downblending scales, and transfer of enriched uranium. All these are points of negotiation that may frustrate the Americans. Iranians will not be in a rush, except when it comes to sanctions relief and unfrozen funds. But would Trump be in a rush to hand them these goodies? Take a wild guess.
Political Capital and Mid-Term Elections
Political capital expended by Trump in wriggling out of this deeply unpopular war will become clear in the November mid-term elections. The last thing he wants is a final deal that compares unfavorably with Barack Obama's JCPOA. So we are stuck in a no-war-no-peace situation that may comfort many stakeholders. Everyone can pretend they are talking peace while biding time. Talks will drag on, moving from subject to subject and capital to capital, adorned with photo-ops and media leaks. As bombs and missiles fall silent, a battle of narratives will wage hot and cold.
Win-Win or Win-Lose?
Is this bad? The answer depends on where you stand on the Idealist-Realist spectrum. Hard cold logic dictates that win-win situations exist only in textbooks and fairytales. In the real world, someone must win and the other side will lose. It may take time to recognize and accept the harsh truth, but there is no other way. In the idyllic environs of Burgenstock, former combatants may not be ready yet to face the truth. They're in the Jack Nicholson Zone from the movie 'A Few Good Men' where he barks: 'You want the truth? You can't handle the truth.' Can we all?
