The six-week-long war involving intensive airstrikes on Iran targeting its military and civil infrastructure failed to achieve any of the war objectives for the combined forces of the USA and Israel. The intensive airstrikes, missile and drone attacks on each other took a heavy toll on human lives, depleted weapon stocks, and devastated socio-economic and communication infrastructure. Iran’s losses in terms of human lives and infrastructure were far greater than those of the aggressors. However, the weapons, military hardware, and assets lost by the coalition forces were far more expensive compared with Iran’s relatively cheaper missiles and drones produced on a mass scale in the country.
Ceasefire and Stalled Dialogue
Pakistan mediated a two-week ceasefire to halt the intense fighting and foster dialogue, announced on April 8, 2026, which was welcomed worldwide. The process of dialogue between the two sides did not make headway, mainly because of the USA leaders’ high expectations and impatience. President Donald Trump harboured the ill-conceived belief that he would intimidate Iranians into handing over what he failed to achieve in the military showdown. Trump, a loose cannon as he is, remained in a state of bellicosity and belligerence, threatening Iranian leadership in derogatory terms and giving deceptive and contradictory statements. Dialogue is underscored by discretion, restraint, patience, and accommodation. No dialogue can reach fruition under the shadow of a sword hanging over the heads of opponents.
Shift to War of Attrition
Iran had no capability of defending itself against the two powerful states. Iran had to fight an asymmetric and expanded war over a longer period to tire out its enemies. With the indefinite extension of the ceasefire and the inflexible positions taken by both sides, the war has quietly turned into a war of attrition – a slow, grinding contest of stamina and endurance. As put by a senior diplomat, it is no longer a question of who strikes harder, but who absorbs more and keeps standing. The war of attrition resembles a hit-and-run conflict, aimed at inflicting multiple blows to bleed the enemy and keep it in a state of war. Attritional wars do not render victory or defeat on the battlefield or in airspace. These wars prey on the resources of states in conflict and strain the tolerance and resilience of military and political leadership.
Iran's Endurance and Resilience
The outcome of the war will not be decided by firepower but by steadfast endurance and resilience, in which Iran far outweighs its enemies. Iran, with a long history of nationhood and civilisational strength, proved an unusually greater capacity for endurance in the eight-year war with Iraq, supported by Western countries and their allied kingdoms, sheikhdoms, and emirates of the Gulf. The USA, with the irascible, belligerent, unpredictable, and unreliable Donald Trump at the helm, will have no capacity to continue this attritional war, which is expected to yield results similar to the two-decade-long war in Afghanistan. President Trump himself campaigned against the futility of long-distance wars.
Domestic and Regional Pressures
There have already been strong demonstrations in over 3,000 cities and towns in the USA against the war. This anger will further grow as atrocious stories of the killing of men, women, and children unfold. We witnessed huge protests in support of Palestinians when Israel was engaged in slaughtering them in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bloodthirsty vengeance consumed over 80,000 lives. President Donald Trump, contrary to his statements, is apprehensive about a further fall in his public ratings, potential defeat in the midterm elections, and a loss of majority in Congress and the Senate, as this would upend his political career.
Trump takes pride in blockading Iranian seaports. There are reports that many Iranian oil and merchant ships have successfully eluded the USA blockade in recent days. Though the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for usual maritime traffic, there are reports that Western ships have been paying tolls to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) for safe passage for many weeks. These ships belong to NATO member countries and cannot be interdicted by the USA. This indicates shifting dynamics of power in the region. The closure of Hormuz, combined with the USA blockade of Iranian seaports, is disrupting global trade and the economy. How long will the USA sustain the blockade of this vital chokepoint at the peril of the world economy?
Israel's Losses and Regional Recalibration
Israel has suffered greater losses in this war. The level of destruction of military and civilian infrastructure is highly underreported, given layers of censorship imposed by Tel Aviv. Israel has completely gagged the media and expelled journalists. Many journalists have lost their lives in the line of duty reporting war atrocities from Lebanon. This time, the Israeli public has shown steadfast tolerance of the pain caused by the war. However, there has been mounting pressure on Netanyahu to terminate it. His dream of Greater Israel, hegemony over the Middle East, its cherished status as a security provider in the Gulf, and the annihilation of the clerical regime in Iran lie in tatters.
The economies of the Gulf states are dependent on oil and gas, with 95 per cent exported through the Strait of Hormuz. Bab al-Mandeb is under threat from Houthi militias. The Arab monarchs, sheikhs, emirs, and sultans have a low threshold for endurance and pain absorption. This attritional war will be a nerve-shattering experience for them. They have had a bitter experience of dependence on the USA’s security umbrella. This will compel them to review alternative options for future security arrangements and recalibrate relations with Iran, which has emerged as a power to reckon with in the current conflict.
Pakistan's Role
The war has catapulted Pakistan to the centre stage of global as well as regional power politics. Pakistan needs to play its cards carefully, focusing on the rehabilitation of its economy.
Ambassador M. Alam Brohi is a former member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and has served as Ambassador for two terms. He is the author of five books.
