The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a forecast predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across most of the country during June and the following two months. This outlook raises concerns over heatwaves, water shortages, and potential impacts on agriculture.
Rainfall and Temperature in May 2026
According to the PMD, Pakistan received 22.4 millimetres of rainfall in May 2026, which was approximately 10 percent below the normal level. The country's average temperature during the month stood at 29.2°C, around 0.8°C above the long-term average.
Regional Rainfall Variations
Regional rainfall patterns varied significantly. Punjab recorded 29.7 millimetres of rainfall, 19 percent above normal, while Sindh received just 0.3 millimetres, reflecting a 91 percent deficit. Rainfall in Balochistan remained 71 percent below normal, whereas Gilgit-Baltistan received 33 percent more rainfall than average.
June Forecast
For June, the PMD expects rainfall in most regions to remain near normal or slightly below normal. The largest shortfalls are likely in northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to receive slightly above-normal rainfall during the month.
Climate Factors
The department noted that El Niño conditions have re-emerged in the Pacific Ocean and are likely to persist in the coming months, while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral. These climate factors may contribute to uneven rainfall distribution across Pakistan.
Temperature Outlook
Temperatures are forecast to stay above normal nationwide. Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could witness particularly high temperature anomalies, while southern Punjab, Sindh, and the plains of Balochistan are expected to face intense heat and an elevated risk of heatwaves.
