Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces declining support in the electorally vital northern region, where Hezbollah rocket fire has been most intense, according to a new poll. This puts pressure on him to adopt a more hawkish stance as elections approach. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, whether it holds or not, may not align with the expectations of northern voters.
Northern Voters Want End to Hezbollah Threat
The May poll by Agam Labs at Israel's Hebrew University, shared exclusively with Reuters, shows that residents in the north are abandoning Netanyahu's Likud party more rapidly than voters elsewhere, and they blame him more harshly for the war in Lebanon. With Iran demanding an end to Israel's military campaign as part of any peace deal with the United States, Netanyahu is caught between domestic electoral considerations and diplomatic efforts by his Washington allies.
The general election due by October could remove Netanyahu's governing coalition from power, endangering his long record as Israel's political survivor. Though his government is considered the most right-wing in Israeli history, many northern voters want a tougher military stance, unrestricted by US pressure to end conflicts in the Middle East.
In Kiryat Shmona, where about half of voters backed Likud in the last election, ending the threat from Hezbollah and its near-daily rocket and drone attacks is the top priority. Residents have only seconds to seek shelter when sirens sound, and they want the war against Hezbollah to continue until the group is dismantled.
“All night there are loud explosions,” said Moshe Yifrah, a 45-year-old resident of Kiryat Shmona. He does not believe a ceasefire with Hezbollah would protect his family. “Who would we make it with? Murderers who want to kill us?”
Hezbollah began firing into Israel after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Israel waged an intense campaign in Lebanon, killing most of the group's leaders and forcing it to accept a ceasefire. However, Hezbollah fired again after Israel and the US launched a war on Iran on February 28, prompting Israel to renew its assault and seize areas of south Lebanon. More than 50 civilians in northern Israel have been killed by Hezbollah fire since October 2023, according to Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies. In Lebanon, over 7,500 people have been killed by Israeli military action since October 2023, according to Lebanese officials' statements that do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
Many northern voters, like Yifrah, want Israel to intensify its campaign, which continued despite an April truce, but believe Netanyahu is yielding to US President Donald Trump's pressure to agree to a ceasefire. “I'm not ashamed to say that I voted for this government, but it turns out that the one managing it is President Trump,” said Yifrah. Trump, who seeks a deal with Iran, said on Monday that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to de-escalate hours after Netanyahu ordered new strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs.
Netanyahu's electoral rivals quickly accused him of compromising national security, adding to his political difficulties months before the election. “Everywhere Hezbollah is deployed it must be struck and the hands of the IDF should not be tied,” said former military chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot, a prime ministerial hopeful, in a speech on Monday. On Wednesday evening, a new truce agreement required Hezbollah to leave south Lebanon. Netanyahu said soon after that despite the ceasefire, military operations would continue for now.
Election Rivals Target North
The Agam Labs poll showed only 23% of northern voters would back Likud in the next election, down from 35% in 2022. Support for the wider right-wing bloc that makes up Netanyahu's coalition has fallen further in the north. The drop in Likud support is about three times greater in the north, home to roughly a fifth of the electorate, than elsewhere in Israel. Around 70% of northern voters surveyed disapproved of the handling of the war in Lebanon, more than in other regions.
“We see a dramatic shift,” said Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs. “It's almost a mirror image of what we saw regarding the past elections, with two thirds intending to vote for the anti-Netanyahu bloc.” The chairperson of Kiryat Shmona's Likud branch did not respond to a request for comment.
Kiryat Shmona, once a prosperous center of tourism and farming nestled in green mountains, is now described as a ghost town with many residents having left. Shops are shuttered and a playground was empty during a Reuters visit. Netanyahu's main rivals are campaigning with hawkish messages in the north; Eizenkot has visited more than 15 times in recent weeks. Netanyahu has stayed away. “He should come visit,” said Yisrael Cohen, 40, a former Likud supporter who will not vote for the party again. “The government needs to see us.”
