Four insurgent left-wing candidates, including three socialists, have won Democratic congressional primaries in the past two weeks, with the latest victory by 29-year-old Melat Kiros defeating 15-term incumbent Diana DeGette. These wins cap a banner year for progressives and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which will soon hold mayorships in New York, Seattle, Washington DC, and Chicago. However, a key obstacle remains: selling American voters on higher taxes to fund expanded public services.
Public Opinion Shifts on Taxes
According to Gallup polling, the share of Americans who consider their federal tax burden too high jumped from 46% in 2020 to 59% in 2025. This trend is notable because federal tax rates are already near historic lows, with the lowest-earning 80% paying much less than 30 years ago. Independent voters are slightly more likely than Republicans to say their taxes are too high, according to Datawrapper data.
A Pew poll from January 2025 found roughly 60% of voters are bothered by wealthy individuals and corporations not paying their fair share. Yet, when asked about their own taxes, voters increasingly favor spending cuts over tax hikes. A Gallup poll from fall 2025 showed 49% prefer reducing the deficit only or mostly through spending cuts, while just 17% favor tax hikes.
The Nordic Model Requires Middle-Class Taxes
Progressives often cite Scandinavian social democracies as models, but those countries sustain their welfare states with much higher taxes. In 2024, US government revenue was about 25% of GDP, while Nordic countries collected over 40%. Norway's top tax rate is lower than America's, but it taxes middle- and upper-middle-class households heavily. For example, a family with two children earning average wages owes $13,518 more in annual income taxes in Norway than in the US, according to OECD data, plus a 25% value-added tax.
American progressives argue that taxing the super-rich could fund expansions, but experts note that raising rates too high may lead to capital flight or reduced work. Moreover, the $2 trillion US deficit already pressures interest rates and prices, with Medicare and Social Security costs rising due to population aging.
Insurgent Left's Limited Impact on Welfare Expansion
While socialist primary wins may shift Democratic stances on Israel and procedural tactics, they have not won in purple-to-red districts where moderates hold sway. The Build Back Better Act, supported by liberals like Espaillat and DeGette, included child allowances and universal pre-K but was blocked by moderates. As prospective socialist Congress member Chris Rabb said, a disciplined progressive bloc could wield defensive power, but moderates historically set welfare policy because they are more comfortable with no deal than progressives.
Unless socialists win marginal Senate and House seats and make middle-class tax hikes palatable to swing voters, transforming America into a social democracy remains a pipe dream, according to analysts.
