WASHINGTON: The El Nino phenomenon has arrived, the US weather agency announced on Thursday. Scientists expect this pattern, associated with droughts, floods, and soaring temperatures, to intensify through the end of the year, potentially reaching historic strength.
El Nino is a natural climate occurrence that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, leading to global changes in winds, rainfall patterns, and erratic weather. Experts fear it will worsen the heat of a planet already warming due to fossil fuel combustion, while amplifying weather extremes.
Historic Potential
“El Nino is here, and it could be one for the history books,” said meteorologist Haley Thiem in an explainer video from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In its latest advisory, NOAA scientists stated there is a 63 percent chance “of a very strong El Nino during November-January that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950.”
Every El Nino is distinct, but major events often follow familiar patterns. These include drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia, and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics. El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. It tends to peak late in the year, but ocean heat releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year.
Climate Change Amplification
In response to the forecast, Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists said “the combination of fossil fuel-caused climate change and a potential super El Nino event makes a terrible team,” potentially pushing global temperatures to record levels. “While El Nino is a naturally occurring phenomenon, there is evidence that fossil fuel-caused climate change is making El Nino events more intense,” he stated.
Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a climate and energy think tank based in Nairobi, said for millions of people globally, “it’s not just another weather forecast” but a “deadly siren to be feared.” “It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again.”
Regional Impacts
Governments across the dry countries of Central America have raised alert levels over El Nino. In the region known as the “Dry Corridor”—including parts of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua—El Nino’s return has triggered fears of drought and stoked concerns of famine. The Guatemalan government, for example, says it has 1.1 million rations ready to distribute in the face of a food security emergency.
In East Africa, Adow said the extremes will likely strike “communities already battered by droughts and floods in recent years.” Predictions from elsewhere in the world mirror those of NOAA, anticipating a particularly strong El Nino. “The odds are strongly in favor of a moderate to strong, or probably strong to record-breaking, event at this stage,” Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change service, told AFP.
Call for Climate Action
Earlier this month, UN chief Antonio Guterres urged the world to treat the likely intense incoming weather “as the urgent climate warning it is.” “El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said. “The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis—ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”
