The United States conspicuously absented itself from United Nations discussions on the Global Compact on Migration earlier this month. The State Department explained via X that it opposes global efforts to facilitate replacement migration to the US and its Western allies. A subsequent post clarified that the Trump administration supports remigration but not replacement migration. These terms echo the far-right great replacement conspiracy theory, which alleges a global elite plot to import people of color for demographic warfare. Such language, once fringe, now emanates from the US government.
Slashing Legal Immigration
Trump has drastically slashed legal immigration while pursuing mass deportation. A Cato Institute report found that Trump cut legal immigration more than illegal immigration. Unauthorized migration fell by over 80 percent in Biden's final year. By Trump's return, border crossings were at historic lows. The drop in legal immigration, however, is Trump's own doing. David Bier of Cato noted that 132,000 fewer people are admitted monthly under Trump. Unlike the asylum suspension ruled illegal by a federal appeals court, the reduction in legal immigration stems from a patchwork of executive orders and regulatory changes.
Impact on Migration and Economy
The first year of Trump's second term saw a net decline in migration for the first time in decades, slowing population growth. Researchers at Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Institute warn this weakens the economy. Migration numbers are expected to drop further in 2026.
Visa Bans and Public Charge Rule
In December, Trump banned immigrant visas for nationals of 40 countries, including Palestinian territories, citing deficient screening. The ban affected 20 percent of applicants without waivers for family of US citizens. Another ban in January suspended immigrant visas for 75 countries deemed high risk of public benefits usage, citing the 19th-century public charge rule. A lawsuit by Catholic Legal Immigration Network alleged the ban was based on false claims and implemented discriminatory rules.
Asylum and Refugee Admissions
The State Department now requires consular officers to ask visa applicants if they fear returning home. Affirmative answers result in visa denial; negative answers can be used against them in deportation hearings. Refugee admissions dropped 90 percent in Trump's second term, with a cap of 7,500 for fiscal 2026. The administration reportedly considers doubling that number only for white Afrikaners from South Africa.
Stripping Legal Status
Trump has rescinded Temporary Protected Status for Syria and Haiti, and sought to end DACA. USCIS has frozen green card processing for travel-ban countries and retroactively strips refugees of status when they apply for permanent residency. The administration aims to strip citizenship from 200 people monthly and eliminate birthright citizenship via executive order, potentially leaving hundreds of thousands of children stateless and deportable.
Impact on Americans
US citizens have been arrested by ICE. Leonardo Garcia Venegas, a Florida-born US citizen, was detained three times by DHS. CBP chief Rodney Scott stated he would not avoid arresting US citizens, as they arrest criminals regardless of citizenship. The strategy is to make life unbearable for immigrants and their children, compelling them to leave.
David Bier summarized: 'They don't want people to come here legally, because if they come here legally, then they won't be able to be deported as easily. Getting rid of people's legal status is an essential component of increasing arrests and deportations.'
