As dawn breaks over the rice fields of Swabi, 66-year-old farmer Zafar Ali steps into ankle-deep water to guide labourers transplanting seedlings across his five-acre farm. The annual ritual has sustained his family for decades, yet this season it is accompanied by growing anxiety over the reliability of the water that keeps the crop alive. For thousands of rice growers across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, concerns over the future of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and regional water security have added a new layer of uncertainty to an already challenging farming environment shaped by rising temperatures and climate change.
Farmers Depend on Indus River for Livelihoods
Standing near the Indus River, Zafar Ali describes the waterway as the lifeline of the region. “This river has sustained generations of farmers,” he says. “Rice depends on a consistent supply of water from sowing to harvest. If that supply becomes uncertain, production and livelihoods will inevitably suffer.” Swabi, Nowshera and neighbouring districts rely heavily on irrigation supplied through the Indus River system and Tarbela Dam, making dependable water flows essential for one of Pakistan’s most valuable agricultural commodities.
With international demand for Pakistani Basmati rice continuing to grow, farmers fear that prolonged uncertainty over water availability could undermine production and reduce export earnings. “People see rice on their tables but rarely appreciate the amount of water and labour required to produce every grain,” Ali says as workers race to complete planting before the afternoon heat intensifies.
Rice Is a Water-Intensive Crop
According to Dr Abdul Rauf, Director General of Agriculture Research Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, rice is among the country’s most water-intensive crops, with one kilogram requiring between 2,500 and 5,000 litres of water depending on soil conditions, climate and cultivation methods. “Water is essential at every stage of crop development, from germination and nutrient absorption to flowering and grain formation,” he says. “Any prolonged disruption can significantly reduce both yield and grain quality.”
To address growing water challenges, agricultural researchers are promoting techniques such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD), the System of Rice Intensification (SRI), precision irrigation and drought-tolerant rice varieties designed to improve water efficiency while maintaining productivity.
Climate Change Exacerbates Water Stress
Dr Rauf says climate change is already placing unprecedented pressure on Pakistan’s water resources through rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns and increased evaporation, making efficient water management increasingly important. Rice remains a cornerstone of Pakistan’s agricultural economy, with annual production averaging around 10 million metric tonnes. Punjab accounts for roughly 61 per cent of cultivation, while Sindh contributes about 31 per cent, and exports generate billions of dollars in foreign exchange each year.
Water Shortages Threaten Economy and Food Security
Senior agricultural economist Dr Muhammad Naeem, former chairman of the Economics Department at the University of Peshawar, says reliable water supplies are critical not only for farmers but for the wider economy. “Any significant decline in rice production due to water shortages would affect farmers’ incomes, export revenues and national food security,” he says.
Former chairman of the International Relations Department at the University of Peshawar, Dr Ejaz Khan, argues that the Indus Waters Treaty remains a binding international agreement and that any disputes should be addressed through the legal mechanisms established under the treaty. He says maintaining the agreement is essential for regional stability and long-term cooperation over shared water resources.
Farmers Worry About Survival Beyond Diplomacy
For farmers such as Zafar Ali, however, the debate is less about diplomacy than survival. He says uncertainty over water supplies has become a recurring concern not only for crop growers but also for beekeepers, fishermen and livestock owners whose livelihoods depend on the same ecosystem. “Every planting season begins with hope,” he says while transplanting seedlings beneath the summer sun. “We can endure hard work, but we cannot farm without water.”
Nearby labourer Nasir Khan echoes the sentiment. “Agriculture feeds our families,” he says. “If water shortages damage the crops, entire communities bear the consequences.” As another day of planting draws to a close, the green fields of Swabi stand as a symbol of both Pakistan’s agricultural resilience and the fragile water security upon which thousands of rural livelihoods depend.
