Iran's Strategic Gains Are Temporary and Negatively Relevant
Iran's spectacular resilience has redefined Middle Eastern security calculus, with a humbled US seemingly content to see Iran checkmate a perceived berserk and out-of-control Israel. However, as repeatedly asserted, Tehran's consequent advantage is temporary and transient. The accrued gains are negatively relevant, forcing the Islamic regime to recalibrate and re-orient its strategic priorities.
Strait of Hormuz: Coercive Diplomacy with Diminishing Returns
Iran leveraged its geography to irk and pique the world as a tool of coercive diplomacy. The world, except Pakistan, did not come to rescue Iran as expected. The international outcry stemmed from Tehran holding the global economy by the neck. Even if Oman-Iran joint sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz were internationally accepted—unlikely—the benefit in shipping clout, international influence, and levies would be minimal compared to the cost in international relations.
The approximately 22 million barrels per day of oil flowing through the strait constitute around 85% of Asia's petroleum needs (China, South Korea, Japan, India, etc.). Closure negligibly affects Israel and the oil-exporting US. Leaving this huge slab untaxed due to friendly ties provides negligible financial advantage. Taxing invites retaliatory levies from these nations, as China is Iran's largest trading and geostrategic partner, India sells agricultural products and pharmaceuticals, Japan exports specialized components, and South Korea provides technology and industrial inputs.
Taxing Qatar's LNG would affect the fattest regional purse, as Doha reportedly holds around $12 billion of frozen Iranian assets and is a likely major contributor to the $300 billion 'War Reparation Fund' to help Iran rebuild. Additionally, GCC nations vigorously pursue alternatives: optimizing existing pipeline networks, constructing more pipelines, trucking petroleum overland to Syria, and enhancing global oil storage. Arab nations will never again allow Iranian blackmail given the ill-considered blockade of their petroleum exports and military attacks endured. Vigorous R&D for green energy, focused on storage batteries and panel prices, further diminishes the long-term value of strait regulation.
IRGC's Role: From War Fighting to Political Prudence
The role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in sustaining Iranian resolve is commendable, but beyond war fighting, things must be left to politicians. Soldiers and generals see the world in binary black and white by virtue of training and professional needs. Grey political stuff is better left to politicians, allowing them some latitude to be wrong sometimes. Generals too afraid of their combat legacy may take uncompromising positions that do not benefit the country.
IRGC's tenacity, resilience, and war strategy are appreciated, imposing caution on the US-Israel Combine and leaving them on a perceptual victory stand. However, Iran is more important than continued resistance, obstinacy, and the appearance of victory. Preserving what remains after bombing, rebuilding, reviving the economy, and escaping the web of sanctions should be Tehran's unmistakable priorities.
3H Proxies: Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah—A Double-Edged Sword
Hamas recently relented in governing Gaza for greater Palestinian reconciliation, long after its reprehensible attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, the main reason for this extended war. Hezbollah is down but not out, still impeding and sidestepping the Lebanese government, undermining its military as a state within a state, and increasingly seen as part of the problem due to Israel's disproportionate and brutal response. Houthis hamper Yemeni unity and politics.
The 'Forward Defence' strategy helped Iran and IRGC yield more influence in the Middle East and protected against Israeli retaliation. However, it also strained Iran economically and created a chasm with the Arab Middle East—from GCC to Saudi Arabia, from Lebanon to Syria, and with Shia Iraq. After a comprehensive peace settlement, Tehran would do well to reassure its Arab neighbours against undue meddling and abstain from supporting non-state actors.
Political Reform: Avoiding an Explosion from Below
In times of crisis, the Iranian nation stood behind the clergy, as people jell together irrespective of politics. The venerable Khamenei was laid to rest with visible protocol and choreography, demonstrating regime popularity and control. However, this apparent unity temporarily hides massive public discontent that has surfaced in Iranian cities from time to time.
'Reformists' within the political right have apparently surrendered to 'Fundamentalists' who champion clichés like the 'axis of resistance', believe in rigid ideological discipline, promote centralized 'resistance economy', and prioritize absolute authority of the clerics (Vilayat-e-Faqih). In the AI-driven 21st century, Iran deserves better. A change from above would be far better than an explosion from below.
Beyond Bluster Bravado: Confronting Structural Damage
The mantra of civilisational superiority, popular resilience, and military indomitability will not make Iran strong, safe, and secure. Feeling rediscovered by the world in 'negative relevance' is as good as it gets. Today, Iran's strategic position is defined by aggressive posturing hiding massive structural damage from war. The regime relies on bluster bravado to preserve leverage against public isolation.
Geostrategically, Tehran's complete maritime control is questionable, its domestic resilience is not invincible, its coercive strategic relevance is mauled, and continued sanctions bite hard. Where does Iran go from here? Towards war and continued economic ruin, or a compromised peace under Reformists that is good for all, where Tehran checkmates Israel? The choice is clear.
