Peshawar - In the shadow of towering mountains of Pakistan, where glaciers have nourished rivers and sustained communities for centuries, a growing sense of uncertainty among local communities about future water is taking hold amid Indus Water Treaty (IWT) violations by India since April last year. For families living in the valleys of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan ranges stretching from Swat to Chitral, glaciers are more than frozen masses of ice but a lifeline for them. They are the source of drinking water, irrigation, livelihoods and life itself. Today, however, environmental experts warned that climate change, coupled with IWT violations by India could place these vital ice reserves under greater threat of disappearing that may disturb ecological balance in the entire region.
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Across northern Pakistan, residents are already witnessing changes in glacier melt and weather patterns due to climate change. “The weather conditions have changed in recent years in northern Pakistan with increased threats of floods in western rivers amid IWT violations by India,” observed environmental expert Gulzar Rehman. “We have experienced very hot temperatures even in April, something that was uncommon a few decades ago in northern KP especially at Swat.” For mountain communities, these changes are not abstract scientific projections but realities that determine whether crops survive, livestock have water, and families remain safe from natural disasters.
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Pakistan is home to one of the world’s largest concentrations of glaciers outside the polar regions, mostly found in Gilgit Baltistan where over 7,253 glaciers provide fresh water supplies to millions of people for irrigation, drinking and industrial purposes. Besides 2,253 mighty, medium and small glaciers, including Baltoro (63 km), Biafo (67 km), and Batura (57 km) found in Gilgit Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Upper Chitral district is blessed with around 500 glaciers, especially at Trichmir mountain ranges, providing freshwater to downstream districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh provinces through the Swat, Panjkora, Kabul and Indus rivers throughout the year.
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Pakistan’s irrigation network has largely depended on these glaciers that continuously recharge rivers and the irrigated system in all provinces. These glaciers continuously feed major rivers, including the Indus, Swat, Panjkora, Kunhar and Kabul, supporting millions of people from remote northern valleys to the fertile plains of Sindh. But experts said that IWT violations have put these glaciers under threat, with a looming water crisis in the region. Dr. Salimur Rehman, former chairman of the Environmental Sciences Department at the University of Peshawar, said climate change besides IWT violations remains the principal cause of glacier melt. However, he warned that unsustainable water management practices and disruptions in natural river systems may further weaken the resilience of glacier-dependent ecosystems in the region.
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The consequences are being felt across the region. Rising temperatures and shrinking snow cover are accelerating glacier melt, increasing the risks of flash floods, droughts and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) — sudden and destructive floods caused by the collapse of natural barriers holding back glacial lakes. Ironically, those most exposed to these dangers have contributed the least to the problem. Experts warned that the negative effects of glacier melting will not remain confined to remote valleys and mountains. Pakistan’s water security is already under pressure due to deforestation and climate change. According to the National Water Policy, per capita surface water availability has declined sharply over the decades, reflecting growing demand and shrinking resources.
In the short term, accelerated glacier melt may bring more floods similar to those witnessed in 2010 and 2022. In the longer term, however, shrinking glaciers could leave millions facing serious freshwater shortages. “With the constant loss of glaciers, flash floods are likely to become more frequent and dams will become dry, creating food and energy crises,” Gulzar said. “At the same time, millions of people could face reduced access to freshwater besides affecting agriculture, livestock and aquatic resources.”
Scientific studies have painted a troubling picture for the broader Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, indicating that a significant portion of glacier volume could disappear by the end of the century if current warming trends, especially IWT violations, continue. “Once ice melts in glacier regions, it is very difficult to put it back into its frozen form,” Gulzar explained. “When large glaciers begin losing mass, that process can continue for a very long time before stabilizing.”
Despite the challenges, experts believe strong action can still make a difference. They emphasized stronger regional cooperation, adherence to international water agreements, improved water governance, expanded afforestation programs and greater efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “Protecting glaciers requires collective responsibility and coordinated action,” said Dr. Salimur Rehman, stressing that glaciers transcend political boundaries and are essential for the water, food and energy security of millions of people across South Asia.
Environmentalists point to Pakistan’s recent afforestation initiatives as a positive step, while calling for greater international climate financing to help vulnerable countries adapt to the accelerating impacts of climate change. For the people living beneath these icy giants, the stakes could not be higher. Every season brings fresh reminders that the glaciers are changing, and with them, the future of communities that have depended on their waters for generations. As temperatures continue to rise in Pakistan, experts warned that the window for meaningful action amid IWT violations is narrowing and the time has come for the World Bank and the international community to step in and force the fascist Modi government to restore the IWT immediately. “The time has come to address these challenges before we lose this invaluable source of water forever,” Gulzar concluded.
