RSF closes in on strategic city of El Obeid
Paramilitary attacks on the strategic city of El Obeid, home to half a million people in central Sudan, have sparked international alarm that another round of mass violence against civilians is being prepared as the country's war enters its fourth year. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have been reinforcing around the city, prompting the United Nations to warn against repeating the horrors of El Fasher, where over 6,000 people were killed in three days last year in an attack that UN experts said bore the "hallmarks of genocide."
UN and Western powers express alarm
“We must not allow the horrors of El Fasher to be repeated in El Obeid,” a spokesman for UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. The UN Security Council has said it is alarmed by reports of “substantial” reinforcements by the RSF around El Obeid in North Kordofan. The United States, Britain and some other European countries have warned of “escalating atrocity risks.” The RSF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Strategic importance of El Obeid
El Obeid lies on Sudan’s main east-west road leading to the Nile Valley and the capital, Khartoum. The city is strategic for Sudan’s army as it battles the RSF. The military broke a more than yearlong siege on the city early last year. The city has a sprawling air base and is home to an infantry division. “El Obeid is important beyond even the strategic implications because it shows what happens when you have two forces that are highly depleted attempting to gain advantage on the other in high proximity,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health.
RSF aims to cut road to Khartoum
The RSF wants to control the road to Khartoum, which Sudan’s military retook last year, and its sister city, Omdurman, placing them again under threat. This would create “havoc for civilians” and make it hard for humanitarian agencies returning to the capital area, Raymond said. Experts said an attack on El Obeid would be different from the one on El Fasher, which followed an 18-month siege and where many killings were ethnically motivated. “This is not a genocidal move, it’s a tactical one,” Raymond said, warning of possible reprisal killings for those seen as allied with the military if the RSF retakes El Obeid.
Residents face daily drone strikes
Over recent months, El Obeid has been subjected to brutal drone strikes by the RSF that have destroyed civilian infrastructure including power facilities and neighborhoods. Drone attacks have also targeted bridges and key supply routes into the city, according to the UN. Taghreed Al-Rashid, a 35-year-old resident reached by phone, said she feels reassured by the presence of army forces but is increasingly fearful of drone attacks targeting residential neighborhoods and markets. She said a recent strike on a power facility sparked a water crisis which has led her to pay $5 per barrel of water. “We’re committed to staying in the city despite our ongoing hardships because forced displacement is a bigger struggle,” Al-Rashid said.
Civilian death toll rises
The ongoing drone attacks have increased the civilian death toll in the Kordofan region. At least 2,670 people including combatants and civilians were killed in 2025, marking a 600 percent increase in drone-related deaths and an 81 percent increase in drone attacks compared to the previous year, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED). Another El Obeid resident, Magdy Abdou, said he is able to go to mosques and markets without difficulty but worries about further drone strikes on infrastructure. Seizing the city would provide the RSF with a base to launch drones at far closer range.
Humanitarian crisis deepens
The recent attacks on infrastructure have left civilians with scarce food, fuel, water, health services and transportation, said Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the UN human rights office. “Many civilians are trapped. Those who are able to flee are doing so. The imminent offensive must be halted, and civilians enabled to safely leave the city,” she said.
Debate over RSF's chances of takeover
The RSF’s “force strength is significantly reduced due to defenses and intertribal fighting” and it lacks the personnel to face the army’s expected counterattack, Raymond said. Still, the RSF has deployed air defense systems in Abu Zabad, West Kordofan, which might serve as a logistical hub for operations targeting El Obeid and another nearby city, Dilling, and intensify clashes, said Ali Mahmoud Ali, Sudan researcher with ACLED. Since the army broke the siege on El Obeid last year, the RSF has launched multiple offensives in attempts to reestablish the siege from several directions.
Army prepares defense
Sudan’s army also is equipped with drones. An army official said recent drone strikes destroyed an RSF battalion and more than 50 armored vehicles in West Kordofan, preventing advances toward North Kordofan and El Obeid. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media, said the army has a plan to protect the city’s airspace from RSF drones. Another army official didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The army has prioritized defending El Obeid and the east-west corridor to the Nile Valley since last year, reflecting a focus on key routes, according to Federico Donelli, associate professor of international relations at the University of Trieste. “Overall, the SAF appears capable of mounting an organized initial defense, but the key open question is whether it can sustain it against a faster, better-equipped RSF push,” Donelli added.
