The dual blockades of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States and Iran represent perhaps the most ludicrous aspects of the ongoing Middle Eastern imbroglio. Both sides seek vital strategic objectives through these measures. Currently, the US has blocked the movement of ships and tankers to and from all ports of Iran, while Iran intends to control the movement of all shipping to and from the Persian Gulf. Unsurprisingly, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical asset for Tehran. It has started controlling all sea lines of communication and trade routes, especially for oil and maritime traffic, through this chokepoint. International cables carrying internet connections are also embedded in this narrow passage, presenting a massive strategic vulnerability at the global level and providing significant leverage for Iran. Any disruption of digital communications could crucially upend regional and global economies.
Economic Impact of the Blockades
These blockades have caused global prices of oil, gas, fertilisers, chemicals, and other commodities to shoot through the stratosphere. They directly affect 20% of global oil and gas trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. In conjunction with a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint by Iranian allies, 25% of the world's economy could be threatened. This phenomenal leverage for Iran makes it least likely to cede control of the Strait to any outside power or succumb to external pressures. However, it might agree to share joint control with Oman. The US could potentially accept this arrangement. Both belligerents could simultaneously lift their blockades and allow free and open navigation through the Strait for all parties. However, obdurately linking the opening of the Strait of Hormuz with capitulation on the nuclear issue by Iran might be overly ambitious and could eventually scuttle the entire peace process. President Trump may claim that he holds all the cards, but the Dire Strait of Hormuz potentially promises a vastly different story.
Regional Dynamics and Peace Efforts
Pakistan is currently hosting peace talks, while Israel is carrying out aggressive expansion into southern Lebanon. This military offensive, among other objectives, gives Prime Minister Netanyahu critical leverage to sabotage or scuttle the peace process whenever desired. He has personal, political, and legal interests in maintaining the Middle East in a destabilised state. The US-Israel Combine has sought a bilateral ceasefire with Iran, while Tehran prefers a comprehensive peace plan for the entire region, including Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. Iran would want to see an end to Israel's brutal adventurism in its fanatical pursuit of Greater Israel. A formal, binding non-aggression pact that includes all countries in the region could form the basis of long-lasting peace in the Middle East. It is imperative that such a pact prohibits the employment or threat of nuclear weapons in any manner whatsoever. Critically, Gulf Arab states will need to reconsider the efficacy of having US bases in their respective territories. A true, realistic, and incisive cost-benefit analysis is warranted, as these bases have become targets and liabilities, with US efforts to defend them falling far short of expectations. This non-aggression pact should also form the basis of much-improved relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states.
The Question of a Regional Non-Aggression Pact
Could a formal, binding non-aggression pact at the regional level be the answer to this conundrum? How could Israel be made a part of it? Could the UN Security Council become the proponent and guarantor of such a pact under an appropriate resolution? These questions remain critical for achieving lasting peace.
Iran's Post-Sanctions Priorities
A quick and dynamic revival of its economy would be Iran's primary concern. It has suffered enormously from the US-led West's coercive policies, including innumerable economic, diplomatic, technological, and other sanctions and embargoes over the last many decades. Iran will seek to have all these summarily removed, its frozen assets repatriated, and appropriate reparations paid for its losses in this malicious war waged by the US-Israel Combine. Furthermore, it would like to be a proactive, respected member of the international community once again and restart all trade activities, including the lucrative oil and gas trades, unperturbed by any restrictions. Freely available Iranian oil could stabilise the global oil market and help revive regional and global economies. China, Russia, and regional countries could play a very important role in the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Iran's destroyed infrastructure, as well as the revival of its economy.
US Approach and Nuclear Concerns
The US must have realised by now that remaining solely fixated upon eliminating Iran's nuclear programme has been largely counterproductive. Only a balanced approach that caters to all security imperatives of all regional countries, including Israel and Iran, will succeed. Is a viable, balanced, and equitable strategic environment even possible where one party is a nuclear power and the rest are not? Its fundamentals are wrong, creating an unequal, imbalanced equation. This must be addressed. It is blatantly untenable, and external nuclear powers will inevitably be sucked in to provide that missing, albeit critical, balance to regional power dynamics. China and Russia will have to be involved in the process; otherwise, it will amount to simply blackmailing the regional countries into capitulation. The US, China, and Russia must get together to undo this Gordian knot in a just, fair, and peaceful manner. No unilateral, biased, unequal solution can be rammed down the gullets of the regional countries by the US or anyone else. That will only exacerbate the already distorted strategic and nuclear environments and create grounds for further hostilities. An unjust, unfair geopolitical dispensation will only breed insecurity, contempt, defiance, resistance, a reversion to hostilities, and the inevitable involvement of regional and extra-regional players. It must be avoided at all costs. Extraordinary situations demand bold, innovative solutions.
Conclusion: A Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone?
Will the US, the ostensible sole superpower of the world, grow beyond its deep biases and compulsions to create a genuine Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East? That could be the first step to ushering in lasting peace for all in the region.
Imran Malik is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.
