The on-again, off-again Iran war is now acquiring critical dimensions as the two protagonists, the US and Israel, cannot seem to agree on how to bring this faltering, flailing military adventure to a mutually acceptable closure. They still appear to be moving on parallel axes bent upon pursuing their essentially divergent strategic objectives. The region and the world, however, look on aghast as the geopolitical and geoeconomic ramifications of this unwarranted, bumbling war start to take their debilitating toll on them.
Did the US military really not consider the hypothesis whereby a maverick Israel starts pursuing its own vital national interests regardless of ostensibly joint strategic objectives and interests, in defiance of US diktat and the complexities of a war being conducted jointly? Did the US military miss this out, or is it deliberately ignoring it now? This hypothesis would have been extremely critical to the success of the war, keeping in mind the eccentric, volatile nature of the Israeli leadership and the import of its lobbies in the US. Its implications will yet determine the further conduct of the war and its final outcome.
The US-Israel Combine’s war effort against Iran has neither met any of its major strategic objectives in the battle spaces nor at the negotiating table. Furthermore, the US has failed to subdue or coerce Iran into any sort of concessions on regime change, the military-nuclear-missile-drone programmes, the control of navigation through the Hormuz Straits, its proxies, the frozen funds, reparations, and so on. Iran, however, still stands defiant, resilient, and unyielding. It appears now to be dictating the time, pace, agenda, and sequence of the contentious issues to be discussed. PM Netanyahu and Israel, oblivious to all other considerations, continue to selfishly play the spoiler’s role to undermine all efforts to resolve this gargantuan geopolitical imbroglio!
Lessons for Gulf Arab States
Consequently, a massive paradigm shift is afoot at the Middle East–Greater Middle East Region (ME-GMER) Complex level. The Gulf Arab states may have learnt some rude lessons and hard-hitting, pitiless truths during this war. One, that outsourcing their security and defence to external powers is a self-defeating proposition, even if done to the world’s most significant superpower. Two, the superpower’s own national and security interests will always override theirs, and both may not necessarily converge readily. Three, the US will always favour Israel and its defence over that of the Gulf Arab states, as demonstrated in the war. Four, providing air, land, sea, logistic, technological, and other bases to a superpower may turn out to be counterproductive. Instead of assets, they may turn into liabilities, attracting attacks and destruction. Five, the best defence for a state is an indigenous one over which it maintains unrestricted operational control. Six, investing humungous amounts of money in far-off economies does not guarantee priority, impenetrable defence and/or inviolable security. Seven, it is time that they look for alternatives to the US; more reliable, trustworthy, dependable, and forthcoming. Eight, unity and peace amongst regional states could effectively nullify all adverse, externally inspired machinations and collusions. A formal, binding no-war pact between all Gulf Arab states and Iran could yet quash bilateral and regional frictions and upend all geopolitical and geostrategic manoeuvrings by the US-led West and Israel. This could be a critical game changer for geopolitics at the regional and, eventually, global levels!
Geopolitical Shifts in the Region
The geopolitical imperatives in the ME-GMER Complex are now in a state of flux, albeit much to the detriment of the US-Israel Combine and its European allies. One, the US has failed to maintain its omnipotent dominance in the region. Its status as a just and fair net stabiliser and net security provider stands seriously attenuated. Two, Europe has been conspicuous only because of its total irrelevance to the conduct and outcome of the war. Three, the US’ partisan role in the war and the consequent critical strategic and power imbalance in the Middle East are compelling the Gulf Arab states to reassess their respective strategic directions and seek other regional and extra-regional powers to bring about a modicum of sanity, stability, and security in the region.
Four, Israel, the sole nuclear power in the region, occupies the most advantageous position and could employ nuclear-military coercion, blackmail, and even downright aggression to subdue or overawe regional states. The Gulf Arab states will thus feel constrained to either equalise or neutralise this existential threat. Nuclear umbrellas, nuclear sharing, and stationing will thus become relevant in regional geopolitics. Five, strategic spaces are being created in the Middle East. The relative power vacuum caused by the US’ rather biased, lacklustre, and underperforming war effort will instigate new, formal, binding geopolitical and geostrategic alignments, partnerships, and alliances between regional and extra-regional players.
Six, the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between KSA and Pakistan may become the harbinger and forerunner of this massive paradigm shift in the geopolitical and geostrategic dimensions of the ME-GMER Complex. The Gulf Cooperation Council members, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, etc., could consider joining it. It has the inherent capacity to become an effective, widespread regional security and defence forum. Seven, if backed by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, it could acquire phenomenal extra-regional dimensions to potentially emerge as an alternate, competing pole to the rather fragile, floundering one being led by the US at the moment.
The War's Uncertain End
The Iran war continues to stumble towards a yet-to-be-determined closure. President Trump has thus far failed to impose his will on either Israel or Iran, albeit in vastly differing contexts. The limits of US power are thus becoming more perceptible and tangible. Will this sorry attempt to subdue Iran then become President Trump’s, and by implication the US’, “Last Hurrah”!
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.
