Israel's strategic compulsions to expand are rooted in the peculiar geography it inherited at its inception, the invalidity of its creation, and the insecurities that have ensued. Initially, it had a very narrow waistline between the Mediterranean Coast and the West Bank, near the cities of Tulkarm and Netanya. At this central point, the country was just 15 kilometers (9 miles) wide, emerging as a critical strategic vulnerability. Hypothetically, during wars, it could be cut in half by a determined enemy's armored formations and then defeated piecemeal. Ever since, Israel has been at pains to create vital strategic depth to forestall such existential threats. The ideal of a Greater Israel fueled this strategic compulsion further.
Expansionist Spree
Thus, Israel has been on an expansionist spree to create strategic depth, buffer zones, and perimeters of security to pursue both compulsions: security as well as Greater Israel. To that end, it has established illegal settlements in the West Bank, moved into Gaza, occupied the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon in Syria, and is now in the process of ingressing deep into southern Lebanon to obviate attacks by Hizbollah into northern Israel suburbs. Ominously, it continues to depopulate these areas.
Impact on Peace Efforts
Now, Israel's obsessive aggression into southern Lebanon is subverting all bilateral and international efforts to bring the Iran war to a peaceful, mutually acceptable closure. The US-Israel Combine's war on Iran continues unabated despite President Trump's insistent rhetoric that a peace deal with Iran is just around the corner. Additionally, there is a wide chasm in how both the US and Iran interpret the term ceasefire. The US sees it as a bilateral understanding between it and Iran, while the latter considers it no less than a peace plan for the entire region, crucially including Lebanon. This vital difference in interpretation and Israel's vicious warmongering in southern Lebanon are the main stumbling blocks in the pursuit of peace in the Middle East.
Divergent Interests
To complicate matters further, there seems to be a crucial divergence of national interests between Israel and the US in bringing their joint assault on Iran to a viable closure. President Trump feels that he has expended a great deal of political, diplomatic, financial, and military capital in this Israel-inspired, aimless military campaign and would like to bring it to an expeditious end. He seems intent upon cutting his losses. Furthermore, he is very hesitant about a ground invasion, as that would ensure a forever war, to the ultimate detriment of his and his party's political fortunes, the US economy, and interests in the region and beyond. PM Netanyahu and Israel, however, might feel otherwise.
Domestic Political Compulsions
Furthermore, both PM Netanyahu and President Trump have dual compulsions, strategic and domestic political, to consider as they pursue their now apparently divergent aims in these ostensible final stages of the Iran war. On the domestic political fronts, both leaders have conflicting interests in the continuation of this war. Both nations are to go to the polls in the next few months. A continuation of the war, especially in Lebanon, would favor PM Netanyahu and his political legacy and destiny domestically. Importantly, he faces legal challenges which might land him in jail if he were not to keep Israel persistently involved in one war after another and thus escape being brought to justice. On the other hand, President Trump faces the mid-term elections in November 2026 and must create favorable political, economic, geopolitical, and strategic environments to boost his party's fortunes. A victory in the war on Iran, a peace deal that annihilates its nuclear-missile-drone programs, guarantees free and open international navigation through the Hormuz Straits, and essentially obviates existential threats to Israel would be the minimum he would like to show his nation for his war effort. He has already failed to achieve any of his oft-stated strategic objectives, and matters are being further complicated by Israel's frenzied, relentless ingress into southern Lebanon. Unsurprisingly, Iran has now made a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon a sine qua non for any meaningful peace talks with the US.
Strategic Cul-de-sac
To assume that President Trump is delaying the peace plan to give time to Israel to achieve its strategic objectives in Lebanon before he starts pursuing peace with Iran in real earnest would be highly contentious. Israel's strategic objectives in southern Lebanon include, apart from creating a perimeter of security for northern Israel, defeating, destroying, disarming, demobilizing, and dissipating all cadres of Hizbollah. However, it has failed to do so in the past many years and is least likely to do so now. Nevertheless, hypothetically speaking, were that to happen, it would surely sabotage the peace process for good. Iran will never accept it, will invariably intervene, and President Trump will be left with little to show for his rather futile war effort in Iran. This brings the war and efforts to end it to a crucial roadblock where both protagonists, the US and Israel, have clashing, conflicting interests to pursue. Israel's foolhardy brinkmanship has literally driven both into a strategic cul-de-sac with no viable options available, while Iran waits patiently on the sidelines, hoping for this formidable, longstanding alliance to fracture and implode.
Conclusion
One of the two, President Trump and PM Netanyahu, will eventually have to blink first, and that will cost him dearly, not only in domestic politics but also on the geopolitical plane. Is President Trump really incapable of imposing his will on PM Netanyahu, or are they complicit in what could turn out to be yet another atrocious, macabre charade at the geopolitical level? (To be continued)
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.
