The US-Iran ceasefire, which was already fragile, is now breaking down. After Iran downed a US helicopter earlier this week, violence between the two sides has escalated once again. The US struck targets inside Iran on Wednesday, and President Donald Trump subsequently threatened to “hit them again hard today.” In response, Iran has launched new attacks against multiple Gulf states, as well as nearby Jordan. Iran also struck at Israel for the first time since early April over the weekend, amid ongoing fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah; Israel responded with strikes of its own.
Context of the Current Chaos
The current chaos comes after Trump started the week on a relative high note. On Tuesday, he told reporters that a “very, very good deal” was imminent. However, as CNN’s Aaron Blake points out, Trump’s prognostications are rarely reliable. He has now predicted a negotiating breakthrough at least 38 times with nothing to show for it.
Impact on Global Economy
Trump’s Wednesday claim about a “secret” (not actually secret) effort to help vessels through the Strait of Hormuz aside, the crucial maritime passage is still largely closed to commercial traffic. Its impact on the global economy is only growing. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on Wednesday showing inflation jumping to 4.2 percent, its highest level in three years. Much of that increase comes from higher energy prices, a consequence of the strait’s closure. Abroad, economic pressure from the war is doing even more damage, resulting in deadly protests in multiple countries.
None of that necessarily means Trump will give ground and agree to end the war any more quickly. As my colleague Josh Keating wrote late last month, he still seems to think he’s winning. But Trump doesn’t actually have a path to the kind of big win he seems to be seeking, and in the meantime, the consequences will keep piling up.
A Small Win: New Sunscreen Approved
In other news, the US just got its first new sunscreen in almost 30 years, just in time for summer. As my colleague Dylan Scott explains, the key ingredient in the sunscreen, bemotrizinol, isn’t actually new — only new to those of us in the States, where it’s been a challenge to get new sunscreens approved by the FDA. But it’s an improvement in all sorts of important ways.
