LONDON - If Andy Burnham wins Thursday's election in Makerfield, the seat he needs to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the country's leadership, it may have less to do with his own appeal than the feuding of two populist right-wing parties splitting their vote. The election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential one-off contests in modern British political history.
The 77,000 voters who live in Makerfield, in northern England, could decide the identity of the prime minister governing almost 70 million people. Opinion polls show Burnham, currently the governing Labour Party's mayor of Greater Manchester, could win because the populist right-wing vote is likely to be divided between two political parties led by two men who used to be colleagues before an acrimonious split last year.
Peter Thompson, who runs a record shop in Ashton-in-Makerfield, said he would vote for Nigel Farage's Reform UK party, but he feared the decision by Restore Britain, led by Rupert Lowe, to stand in the contest could allow Burnham to win. "All my voting in life there's only been two parties that have run this country, Labour and Conservatives. Look around you, it's a mess," the 78-year-old said, describing how Britain's politics has fractured into more parties and independent representatives than ever before.
"If it was a straightforward fight, I think Reform may well edge it but because there's that many parties that you can vote for now, I think it will swing it to Labour's advantage, unfortunately." Opinion polls in the constituency point to a Labour lead of between five and 12 points over Reform, although by their nature these surveys are prone to large degrees of error. Labour won the seat in the 2024 general election by 13 points over Reform.
Lawmaker Josh Simons announced last month that he was stepping down to make way for Burnham to contest the seat and potentially challenge Starmer from within parliament.
