History tilts the odds in favor of Egyptian club Zamalek as they prepare to overcome a 1-0 deficit against Algerian visitors USM Alger in the CAF Confederation Cup final second leg on Saturday. In 22 previous editions of Africa's equivalent of the UEFA Europa League, only three teams have managed to build a solitary-goal lead at home in the first leg of a title decider. However, Dolphins of Nigeria (2005), Club Africain of Tunisia (2011), and Renaissance Berkane of Morocco (2019) all surrendered their slim advantage after the return match.
Historical Precedents
Dolphins fell 3-0 at FAR Rabat of Morocco, while Club Africain and Berkane lost penalty shootouts against MAS Fes of Morocco and Zamalek respectively, following 1-0 losses. Twice Confederation Cup winners, Zamalek are trailing ahead of the second leg in Cairo after a dramatic climax to the first encounter in Algeria last weekend.
Brazilian substitute Juan Bezerra netted in the first minute of added time, celebrating what he and his teammates believed was the match winner. However, VAR officials intervened, informing the Mauritanian referee that USM substitute Rayane Mahrouz had been fouled in the Zamalek box prior to the goal. The Zamalek goal was canceled and a penalty awarded to USM, which Ahmed Khaldi slammed past Mahdi Soliman to give the hosts a 98th-minute lead.
Coaches' Perspectives
“Winning is the most important thing in a final, no matter the performance. We need to improve some technical issues,” Senegal-born USM coach Lamine N’Diaye told reporters. “We should not underestimate what we achieved — Zamalek rank among the most experienced clubs in Africa. They have won 13 CAF titles, we (USM) have won two.” N’Diaye can boast of two African successes, guiding TP Mazembe from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the 2010 CAF Champions League and 2011 CAF Super Cup titles.
In the opposite dugout will be Moatamed Gamal, an Egyptian who hopes to lead Zamalek to the Confederation Cup and Egyptian Premier League titles by May 20. Zamalek host Ceramica Cleopatra next Wednesday and maximum points will ensure they become Egyptian champions for the first time in four seasons.
“We had hoped to come away from Algeria with at least a draw, so having a goal disallowed and then conceding was extremely disappointing,” said Gamal. “However, it is only half-time in the final and we will have home advantage in the second half. I see no reason why we cannot overcome the deficit. Zamalek have many players used to competing in Africa and I believe their experience will play a key role in the second leg.”
Home and Away Records
At home, the Cairo White Knights won four matches and drew two en route to the final, scoring six goals and conceding two. Bezerra and Tunisian Seifeddine Jaziri have claimed four goals each in 13 matches and Palestine international Oday Dabbagh three. USM have had mixed results on the road, winning twice, drawing twice and losing twice, scoring five goals and conceding five. Ahmed Khaldi has bagged four goals, three of them from penalties. However, the Algerian club are still waiting for a first goal from Ivorian Dramane Kamagate, who was signed after netting six times for San Pedro, a team that lost twice to USM in the group phase and were eliminated.
Away goals count double in the event of an aggregate draw in CAF competitions, and that rule enabled USM to win their quarter-final and semifinal ties.
