MULTAN – Agricultural experts, economists, and environmental specialists have warned that any prolonged disruption to river flows under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could have far-reaching consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture, food security, and rural economy. While debate over the treaty often centers on diplomatic and legal considerations, experts argue that the most immediate impact would be felt across farms, orchards, livestock holdings, and rural communities that depend heavily on reliable water supplies.
Impact on Key Crops and Livestock
Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, providing livelihoods for millions and contributing significantly to national output. Analysts warn that reduced water availability could lower crop yields, diminish farm incomes, and place additional pressure on already vulnerable rural populations. Sajid Mahmood, Scientific Officer at the Central Cotton Research Institute (CCRI), said uncertainty in irrigation supplies would directly affect agricultural productivity. “Pakistan’s farming sector depends on predictable water availability. Any sustained reduction in irrigation can affect crop output, exports, and economic activity across the agricultural value chain,” he said.
Among the sectors most vulnerable to water shortages is cotton, often referred to as the country’s “white gold.” Experts warn that inadequate irrigation during critical growth periods could reduce production and affect Pakistan’s textile industry, which relies heavily on domestic cotton supplies. The country’s mango industry could also face significant challenges. Muhammad Arif, a mango grower and industry expert, said adequate water was essential during flowering, fruit development, and maturation stages. “Extended periods of water stress can reduce fruit size, quality, and overall yields, affecting both growers and export earnings,” he said. Southern Punjab and Sindh, home to much of Pakistan’s mango production, could experience declining yields if irrigation supplies become less reliable.
Experts note that the risks extend well beyond export crops. Wheat, the country’s staple food crop, requires timely irrigation, while maize plays a vital role in livestock feed and poultry production. Vegetable growers may also face reduced harvests and higher production costs, potentially contributing to food inflation.
Food Security and Rural Employment at Risk
Agricultural analyst Amir Hamza said water security and food security were closely interconnected. “Lower agricultural output can lead to higher food prices and place greater pressure on low-income households. The implications extend far beyond the farming community,” he said. The consequences could also be severe for rural employment. Millions of laborers rely on seasonal agricultural activities, including planting, irrigation, harvesting, transportation, and processing. A decline in farm output could reduce employment opportunities and household incomes across rural Pakistan.
Experts further warn that prolonged water stress may accelerate migration from rural areas to cities, adding pressure to already strained urban infrastructure. The livestock sector, which contributes significantly to Pakistan’s agricultural economy, would also be affected. Livestock specialists Muhammad Ramzan and Dr. Jamshaid Akhtar said reduced water availability could diminish fodder production and increase feed costs. “Water shortages affect livestock both directly and indirectly. Rising feed costs and lower fodder availability can reduce dairy and meat production while increasing financial pressures on farmers,” they said.
Environmental and Regional Implications
Environmental consequences are another major concern. Specialists warn that reduced river flows could worsen soil salinity, accelerate land degradation, and diminish natural grazing areas. Wetlands and riverine ecosystems may also face ecological stress, threatening biodiversity and reducing the resilience of agricultural landscapes. Experts caution that restoring degraded soils can take years, even after water supplies recover.
Analysts argue that the issue carries implications beyond agriculture alone. The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, has long been regarded as one of the world’s most enduring transboundary water-sharing agreements, surviving periods of conflict and political tension between the two countries. Experts warn that any sustained disruption to established water-sharing arrangements could undermine regional confidence and complicate efforts to address shared challenges such as climate change, population growth, and food insecurity. “Water should remain a source of cooperation rather than confrontation,” Amir Hamza said. “South Asia already faces significant environmental and economic pressures, and water insecurity can have consequences that extend well beyond national boundaries.”
For Pakistan’s farming communities, the debate is ultimately about livelihoods. Reliable access to water determines whether crops flourish, orchards remain productive, livestock are sustained, and rural households can maintain their incomes. Experts agree that water security, food production, and economic stability are closely linked. Any prolonged disruption to the river system that supports Pakistan’s agricultural sector could have profound consequences for millions of people and for the wider regional economy.
