It has been over eight weeks since the United States and Israel initiated a military conflict with Iran, driven by reasons that remain contradictory and unclear. The situation has not improved, and there is no resolution in sight. US-Iran talks, which were scheduled to take place in Pakistan over the weekend, collapsed on Saturday. President Donald Trump posted on social media that "Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none!"
To address public concerns, Vox senior foreign policy correspondent Joshua Keating answered several reader-submitted questions about the Iran conflict. Here are the key points from his responses.
Was the attack on Iran necessary to prevent nuclear weapons?
Iran possesses a stockpile of approximately 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, theoretically enough for 10 to 11 nuclear weapons. Iran has denied intentions to build a bomb, and the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons. However, there is no credible civilian use for such enrichment levels. It is possible Iran sought to remain a "threshold" nuclear state for leverage in negotiations and deterrence, but this backfired. The nuclear material remains buried underground at enrichment sites. Whether Iran could excavate and weaponize it before detection and attack is uncertain. Being bombed during nuclear negotiations twice in the past year may increase Iran's incentive to acquire a nuclear weapon.
Will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?
The likelihood of prolonged closure depends on definitions. Trump's extension of the ceasefire suggests limited interest in military action to reopen the strait, or a wait for more assets. Both sides have economic incentives to reopen, but Iran may prioritize disruption to deter future attacks. Experts believe Iran has planned for months of economic pressure, calculating that the US has lower pain tolerance. However, other nations, especially Gulf neighbors, may not tolerate Iran charging tolls on an international waterway indefinitely. The situation is unprecedented, making certainty impossible.
Are there alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz?
The East-West pipeline, built in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War, runs from Saudi Arabia's eastern oil fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea. It now operates at full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, providing a relief valve but insufficient to replace the 20 million barrels that typically flow through Hormuz. Gulf countries are considering other pipeline projects, but they will not help in the current crisis. Hormuz is a unique chokepoint with no viable alternative due to regional geography.
How long to rebuild US missile stockpiles?
The US has used over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles in this war, producing only about 100 per year. About 50 percent of THAAD interceptors (around 200) have been expended, with annual purchases of about 11. This has diverted systems from Europe and East Asia, weakening US readiness for another major war, especially with China. The severity depends on the war's duration and target count. The Pentagon plans to invest $30 billion in critical munitions, including interceptors.
Can Iran retaliate through cyberwarfare?
Iran appears unable to launch major cyberattacks disrupting daily American life. However, pro-Iranian "hacktivist" groups have increased attacks on targets like Stryker, Bluesky, and the Los Angeles Metro. These are concerning but less severe than ongoing Chinese hacking campaigns such as Volt Typhoon and Salt Typhoon.
