Shortly after the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28, which initially killed 168 schoolgirls in Minab, President Donald Trump outlined multiple goals, including destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and ensuring Tehran never acquires a nuclear weapon. Over three months later, with a preliminary peace deal in place, what has Trump achieved?
Missiles and Drones
Before the war, Iran held the largest ballistic missile stockpile in the Middle East, with between 2,500 and 6,000 missiles of various types. Some could reach Israel, with ranges up to 2,000 kilometers, and some carried cluster munition warheads. Iran also manufactured long-range drones, notably the Shahed drone used by Russia against Ukraine. About one month into the war, US sources told Reuters that one-third of that arsenal was destroyed, with another third likely damaged or buried. US Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress on May 14 that Iran's ability to build and stockpile missiles and drones had been set back by years. He stated that over 1,500 missiles and 6,000 drones were intercepted by the US and allies. It remains unclear how many missiles Iran retains, but it can still target US bases in regional countries, as seen on June 6 with salvos at Kuwait and Bahrain, and June 7 with missiles at Israel. Those countries reported no significant damage.
Conventional Military
The US military claims to have degraded Iran's conventional power projection. Cooper told Congress that the US destroyed 161 Iranian naval ships and knocked out 82% of its air defense systems. The Iranian air force, which flew up to 100 sorties daily before the war, now flies none. Despite this, Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz throughout the conflict, bottling up merchant ships carrying one-fifth of the world's oil and gas, using speedboats, mines, drones, and missile boats.
Nuclear Programme
Trump repeatedly stated his main goal was preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists its program is peaceful. The war has not significantly changed Iran's nuclear capability. US intelligence last month estimated Iran would need less than a year to produce a nuclear weapon, the same timeline as after the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The nuclear program will be a central issue in the framework deal to be signed on Friday. Trump demands Iran's enriched uranium be removed from the country, while Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei insists it must not be sent abroad.
Iranian Proxies
Trump said on March 2 that Tehran cannot continue arming proxy groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. Iran has shown no willingness to halt support, but assessments claim its proxy network is less effective. Israel killed many Hamas leaders and fighters after the October 7, 2023 attacks, and killed many Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon. Iran lost a key supply route with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's rule in Syria in 2024. Sanctions have undercut funding. The groups have not played a major role in the war. Hamas has not attacked Israel from Gaza, while the Houthis have not significantly disrupted Red Sea shipping. Hezbollah joined the war on March 2, launching missiles and drones into Israel, prompting Israeli airstrikes and a ground invasion that killed nearly 3,700 people and displaced 1.2 million in Lebanon. Some 28 Israeli soldiers and four civilians have died. Cooper told Congress in May that Iran can no longer reliably supply these groups with advanced weapons.
Regime Change
Trump and Israel encouraged Iranian protesters to overthrow their rulers before the war, calling the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 their "single greatest chance" to seize power. Israel's Channel 14 reported that Israel helped arm protesters, resulting in deaths of Iranian security personnel and civilians. On March 6, Trump said the war would end only with "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" from Iran and a new "acceptable" leader. Although the war failed to dislodge Iran's government, Trump claimed success because Khamenei was replaced by his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, whom Trump called "a new, and more reasonable" leader on March 29. Trump has recently refrained from repeating calls for toppling Iranian leaders.
