Pakistan’s weather authorities on Monday forecast the country’s first organized monsoon spell of the season from July 1-6, warning of heavy rainfall, localized flash floods and urban flooding across large parts of the country after successive years of devastating monsoon disasters.
Warning After Years of Deadly Floods
The warning comes as Pakistan remains highly vulnerable to extreme weather after catastrophic monsoon flooding in 2022 killed more than 1,700 people, affected 33 million others and caused over $30 billion in economic losses, making it one of the country’s worst climate disasters. Last year’s monsoon season also triggered widespread flooding that killed more than 1,000 people and damaged homes, infrastructure and agricultural land across several provinces.
Scientists have repeatedly linked Pakistan’s increasingly erratic weather to climate change, with heavier rainfall, more frequent flash floods and prolonged heat waves placing growing pressure on the country’s disaster response and water management systems.
Details of the Forecast
“The first organized spell of the Monsoon rainfall is expected to establish over Pakistan during the first week of July 2026, bringing a noticeable increase in rain-wind/thunderstorm activity across the northern and northeastern parts of the country,” the Pakistan Meteorological Department said in a statement. “The rainfall is likely to occur intermittently, while isolated heavy downpours may trigger localized urban flooding, flash floods in vulnerable hilly catchments.”
The department said rain and thunderstorms were expected across northeastern and central Punjab, including Lahore, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Murree and the Galliyat region, between July 1 and July 6, with isolated heavy downpours possible over northeastern Punjab and the Potohar plateau.
Regional Impact
In the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, widespread rainfall is forecast from July 1-5 across districts including Peshawar, Swat, Chitral, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Dir and Kohistan, where heavy rain could trigger localized flash floods in mountainous areas. Scattered rainfall is also expected in northern and northeastern Balochistan between July 1 and July 4, while parts of upper Sindh, including Sukkur, Larkana and Jacobabad, are forecast to receive rain on July 3 and 4.
The weather department also forecast widespread rain across Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir through July 5 and July 6, warning that heavy rainfall in mountainous areas could increase the risk of flash floods and landslides.
