The remaking of the Middle East following the devastating war between the United States and Israel against Iran is accelerating, with the latest major shift being the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC Plus. This move deals a significant blow to the oil-exporting bloc that has historically shaped both regional and global energy politics.
Gulf Cooperation Fractures
The Gulf, once functioning as a de facto bloc to enhance its collective bargaining power in global affairs—whether through oil leverage, joint defense, or diplomatic coordination—now appears to be disintegrating. The fault lines were always present, and such a dramatic rupture was only a matter of time. The UAE has increasingly positioned itself as an Israeli outpost in the Middle East, working closely to advance Tel Aviv's objectives while conducting military and proxy operations in Sudan, Yemen, and elsewhere in ways that align with Israel's aggressive regional posture.
Divergence During the Iran War
During the Iran war, while other Gulf monarchies sought some form of middle ground, the UAE sharply criticized Iran and sided with Israel and the United States. This divergence did not emerge overnight. Saudi-Emirati tensions in Yemen, the UAE's withdrawal of forces, and its sponsorship of militias in Sudan have all created ripple effects now being felt across the region. Leaving OPEC may prove to be the final nail in the coffin of meaningful Gulf cooperation.
Emerging Power Blocs
India, the UAE, and Israel now appear to form one regional trilateral alignment, while Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt are emerging as another power bloc. Iran, along with its allies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, constitutes a third pole. This may appear as an assertion of independence by Abu Dhabi, but the UAE could face severe difficulties ahead. It is a small state whose financial hub status heavily depends on security, predictability, and the perception of sanctuary. By inserting itself so aggressively into regional geopolitics, it opens the door to retaliation and instability.
The UAE has taken a dangerous gamble. Whether it pays off remains to be seen.
