LAHORE - As the final results of 24 general seats to the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly have been officially announced, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is expected to secure three of the six reserved seats for women and one of the three technocrat seats under the proportional representation formula, taking its total strength to 15 members in the 33-member house.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is likely to receive two women’s seats and one technocrat seat, raising its tally from six to nine members. The Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) is expected to secure one women’s seat and one technocrat seat, increasing its strength to six members, while the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) are unlikely to obtain any reserved seats and will retain their respective strengths of two and one members.
Though the Election Commission of Gilgit-Baltistan has not yet officially notified the allocation for the nine reserved seats, the anticipated allocation of six reserved seats for women and three seats for technocrats and professionals is expected to significantly strengthen the position of the PPP in the newly elected Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly, placing it within touching distance of a majority and making it the frontrunner to form the next government in the region.
Based on the results of the 24 general seats, the PPP has emerged as the largest party with 11 seats, followed by the PML-N with six seats, the IPP with four seats, PTI with two seats and MWM with one seat.
Following the anticipated allocation of reserved seats, the party position in the 33-member assembly is expected to stand at PPP 15, PML-N 9, IPP 6, PTI 2 and MWM 1.
With the majority number set at 17 in the 33-member house, the PPP will require the support of only two additional members to form the government. However, the political equation appears to be largely settled in its favour already.
The PML-N has publicly pledged its support to a PPP-led government in Gilgit-Baltistan without seeking representation in the cabinet. According to political observers, this arrangement mirrors the working understanding between the two parties at the federal level and in Punjab, where the PPP has supported PML-N governments while remaining outside the cabinet in exchange for parliamentary and institutional adjustments.
Under the emerging arrangement, the PML-N is expected to support the PPP’s candidate for chief minister while securing the office of governor for itself. If this understanding holds, the combined strength of PPP and PML-N would rise to 24 members, providing a comfortable and stable majority without the need for support from any other party or independent member.
Another possible scenario is a PPP–IPP coalition, which together would command 21 seats and comfortably cross the majority threshold. However, analysts suggest such an arrangement could come at a political cost for the PPP, as the IPP is likely to demand significant representation in the cabinet and key decision-making positions.
A broader coalition involving the PPP, IPP and smaller parties remains a theoretical possibility but is not considered necessary under the current political arithmetic.
In contrast, an alternative alliance excluding the PPP—comprising the PML-N, IPP, PTI and MWM—would collectively secure 18 seats, just above the required majority. However, political observers consider this scenario highly unlikely due to strained relations involving the PTI and other major parties, as well as ideological and political differences among potential partners.
As things stand, the PPP appears well placed to lead the next government in Gilgit-Baltistan, with the likely allocation of reserved seats further strengthening its position and narrowing the path towards a stable governing coalition.
