Security Deal Ties Withdrawal to Hezbollah Disarmament
A security agreement between Israel and Lebanon risks entrenching a prolonged stalemate rather than ending the conflict, according to regional analysts and politicians. The deal ties Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to the disarmament of the Iran-aligned Hezbollah group, a condition widely seen as unattainable. Hezbollah has flatly rejected disarmament, and no Lebanese government has the power to enforce it, leaving the state trapped between obligations it cannot meet and sovereignty it cannot reclaim.
Analysts Question Feasibility of Key Condition
At the core of the agreement is a bargain few consider workable. Hezbollah has dismissed disarmament, and analysts say Israel now has political cover to maintain an open-ended military presence in southern Lebanon. Israel invaded the area after Hezbollah fired rockets on March 2 in solidarity with Tehran over the war in Iran. The framework deal also clashes with Lebanon's political realities, asking a fragile sectarian state to confront the most powerful armed faction in the country. A senior Lebanese politician, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: 'This is not an agreement, it is an imposed settlement.' He added that the Lebanese army is neither structured nor equipped to disarm Hezbollah, and expecting it to do so ignores the group's entrenched military capacity and the fragile sectarian balance on which Lebanon's stability rests.
Burden Placed on Lebanon Without Guarantees
Political analysts say the imbalance is built into the agreement's design. Michael Young, a Beirut-based analyst, said: 'This agreement has put all the burden on Lebanon' and 'creates a structure that allows the Israelis to remain indefinitely.' Fawaz Gerges, a Lebanese scholar at the London School of Economics, described the deal as 'born dead' and structurally flawed, hinging on an impossible condition. He noted that Israel has already consolidated a buffer zone in southern Lebanon about eight to 10 kilometers deep while tying any future withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament. Gerges warned that the terms risk legitimizing the buffer zone long-term, calling it a political 'gift' to Israel.
Fear of Civil Conflict and Sectarian Tensions
The framework agreement, signed in Washington, affirms that Israel has no claim to Lebanese territory and makes Lebanese army authority in the south contingent on verified disarmament of non-state armed groups, including Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu portrayed the deal as a historic achievement, while Israeli troops remain deployed in a so-called security zone. 'We will continue to hold it until Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations are disarmed,' Netanyahu said on Saturday. Three senior Israeli officials said Israel has little faith in Lebanon's ability to disarm Hezbollah but sees the deal as a diplomatic step. About 4,000 people have been killed in Lebanon and a million displaced during Israel's military campaign. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun welcomed the agreement as a first step toward restoring sovereignty, but Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called it an 'agreement of dictates' that would not be implemented. Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem declared the deal 'null and void' and a 'surrender,' vowing to keep fighting. Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah warned of 'internal conflict' in Lebanon. Young said the deal 'won't lead us anywhere except to civil conflict, and maybe an insurrection by the Shiite community.'
Implementation Doubtful, Analysts Say
Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, said Hezbollah's dismantlement was 'something that would never happen,' and the deal legitimizes an open-ended Israeli military presence. 'Nothing will happen. Israel won't withdraw, and Hezbollah won't dismantle,' he said, adding that no Israeli prime minister has the domestic political space to withdraw while Hezbollah remains armed. He suggested a narrower pact focused on Hezbollah's pullout from south of the Litani River, expanded Lebanese army deployment, and extension of state authority would have a better chance. Pro-Hezbollah analyst Mohammed Obeid also said the deal is unlikely to be implemented, calling its provisions 'like explosives' that could detonate Lebanon's internal stability.
